Herbert Jones' three-pointers made prop at home shows clear under value with a 40% over rate and -23.6% over ROI across 25 games. His 1.24 average barely exceeds the typical 1.18 line, creating consistent under opportunities in familiar Smoothie King Center surroundings.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones operates as New Orleans' defensive specialist first, with three-point shooting remaining a secondary skill that becomes even more conservative at home. His 40% over rate at the Smoothie King Center reflects a player who prioritizes defensive positioning and cutting over perimeter shooting when playing in front of home crowds. The minimal 0.06 differential between his 1.24 home average and the standard 1.18 line creates a razor-thin margin that consistently favors the under. Jones' role as a complementary piece means his shot attempts fluctuate based on game flow, but home games tend to produce more structured offensive sets where his primary responsibilities involve defense and transition plays rather than spot-up shooting. The -23.6% over ROI demonstrates how books struggle to properly price a role player whose three-point volume depends heavily on game script. His current streak of one under follows a pattern where longer under streaks (up to four games) occur more frequently than over streaks, suggesting his home shooting remains inconsistent and opportunity-dependent rather than skill-driven.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones' 40% over rate and significant negative ROI on overs creates a sustainable edge for under bettors at home. His defensive-first role limits three-point opportunities in structured home offensive sets. The primary risk involves blowout games where garbage time could inflate his attempts, but his conservative shooting approach at home makes the under the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 10 of 25 home games (40% rate) with a -23.6% ROI on overs. His under record of 15-10 shows clear value for under bettors at the Smoothie King Center.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Herbert Jones' three-pointers made at home. His 40% over rate and -23.6% over ROI create consistent under value, while his defensive-first role limits perimeter shooting opportunities in home games.
What's Herbert Jones's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Herbert Jones averages 1.24 three-pointers made in home games compared to his typical 1.18 line. This minimal 0.06 differential creates tight margins that consistently favor under bettors over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones three-point unders in home games against strong defensive teams where his role focuses on defense. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his shooting attempts unnecessarily.