Herbert Jones' three-point prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.9% overs across 49 games with a -14.3% ROI on over bets. His 1.41 average barely exceeds the typical 1.28 line, creating sustainable value on unders despite the modest edge.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Herbert Jones' three-point output being consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. At 44.9% overs across 49 games, Jones falls well short of the 52.4% break-even rate needed for profitable over betting, while under bettors enjoy a healthy 5.2% ROI. His role as a defensive specialist limits his offensive volume, with three-point attempts varying based on game flow and the Pelicans' injury situation. The modest 0.13-point edge over his typical line suggests books are pricing him fairly but not accounting for his inconsistent shooting mechanics and tendency to defer to primary scorers. Jones' three-point shooting has always been streaky, and his defensive responsibilities often leave him with limited energy for offensive aggression. The fact that his longest streaks in both directions cap at four games indicates volatility without sustainable hot streaks. Most critically, the Pelicans' pace and style often dictate whether Jones gets quality looks, making his props more dependent on game script than individual skill. This creates opportunities when books set lines based on season averages rather than situational factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5.2% ROI on unders combined with a sub-45% over rate creates legitimate value, though the small sample size and modest edge prevent a stronger recommendation. Target unders when Jones faces strong perimeter defenses or in games where the Pelicans project to play slower. The primary risk is his defensive role expanding his minutes and creating more offensive opportunities than expected.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Herbert Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 22 of 49 games (44.9%) this season, with 27 unders. His average of 1.41 three-pointers made slightly exceeds the typical 1.28 line, creating a modest but consistent edge for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Herbert Jones' three-pointers made props. The 44.9% over rate and 5.2% ROI on unders provides legitimate value, especially when considering his defensive-first role and inconsistent shooting volume throughout games.
What's Herbert Jones's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Herbert Jones averages 1.41 three-pointers made per game compared to his typical 1.28 line, creating a small 0.13-point edge. However, this modest differential masks significant game-to-game volatility that favors under betting at current pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones three-point unders when facing strong perimeter defenses or in slower-paced games where his offensive opportunities decrease. His defensive workload often impacts his shooting energy, making situational spots more valuable than betting every game.