Herbert Jones shows a clear under bias with extended rest, hitting overs just 46.2% of the time across 13 games. His 1.46 steals average beats the typical 1.19 line, but the 6-7 record and -11.9% over ROI suggest consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's steal production with extended rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw performance and betting outcomes. While his 1.46 average exceeds the typical 1.19 line by a substantial 0.27 steals, the market appears to be overadjusting for his elite defensive reputation. The 46.2% over rate across 13 games suggests books are setting lines that account for Jones's peak steal ability rather than his more measured production with extra rest. This pattern likely stems from Jones's role as New Orleans's primary perimeter stopper, where extended rest might actually reduce his gambling instincts as he focuses on fundamental positioning. The defensive coordinator may emphasize disciplined team defense over individual steal hunting when the team is well-rested, explaining why Jones's steal totals remain solid but fall short of inflated expectations. The -11.9% over ROI indicates this trend has been profitable for under bettors, while the modest +2.8% under ROI suggests the market is slowly adjusting. However, with Jones's reputation as one of the league's premier steal threats, books likely continue overvaluing his production in these spots, creating a sustainable edge for disciplined under bettors who recognize the difference between Jones's ceiling and his typical well-rested output.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.2% over rate and negative over ROI indicate consistent market overvaluation of Jones's steal production with extended rest. Target games where the line sits at 1.5 steals, as his 1.46 average suggests he'll fall short more often than not. Main risk is Jones facing high-pace opponents that force more possessions and steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Steals prop record 2+ days rest?
Herbert Jones has gone 6-7 on steals overs with 2+ days rest across 13 games, hitting just 46.2% of overs. His under record shows consistent value against inflated market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Steals 2+ days rest?
Lean under on Herbert Jones steals with extended rest. The 46.2% over rate and -11.9% over ROI indicate the market consistently overvalues his production in these spots.
What's Herbert Jones's average Steals 2+ days rest?
Herbert Jones averages 1.46 steals with 2+ days rest compared to typical lines around 1.19. While he beats the average line, he underperforms betting expectations 53.8% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones steals unders when he has 2+ days rest and lines are set at 1.5 or higher. Avoid when facing pace-up spots or teams prone to turnovers.