Herbert Jones blocks props show a slight under bias with just 48.8% overs across 41 games, but his 0.73 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.52 line. The +0.21 differential suggests consistent line value despite the poor over record, creating a nuanced betting opportunity that leans toward selective over plays.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones presents an intriguing blocks betting paradox that reveals the complexity of defensive prop analysis. Despite averaging 0.73 blocks per game against a standard 0.52 line—a substantial +0.21 edge—his over rate sits at just 48.8% with concerning -6.9% ROI on overs. This disconnect typically indicates either inflated lines in specific spots or variance clustering that masks underlying value. Jones's role as New Orleans's primary perimeter defender should generate consistent block opportunities, particularly against teams that attack the rim frequently or rely on smaller guards who struggle finishing over length. The 41-game sample provides solid statistical foundation, though the recent 1-game under streak and balanced 4-game max streaks in both directions suggest this prop lacks strong momentum patterns. The superior under ROI of -2.2% versus -6.9% on overs points to better line efficiency on the under side, but the persistent average-to-line gap suggests books may be undervaluing Jones's defensive impact. His blocks production likely correlates strongly with opponent pace, three-point attempt rate, and the presence of New Orleans's interior defenders, creating situational edges for sharp bettors who can identify favorable matchup spots rather than blindly following the average differential.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. While Herbert Jones's 0.73 average creates appealing value against 0.52 lines, the 48.8% over rate and -6.9% ROI reveal consistent line inflation that negates the statistical edge. Target unders when facing high-pace teams that generate clean looks, as Jones's block opportunities diminish when opponents execute efficiently. The -2.2% under ROI suggests better line value on that side despite the average differential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Blocks prop record all games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his blocks prop in 20 of 41 games (48.8%) while staying under 21 times. His overall record shows a slight under bias with 0 pushes, generating negative ROI on both sides but worse performance on overs at -6.9%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Blocks all games?
Lean under on Herbert Jones blocks props. Despite his 0.73 average exceeding typical 0.52 lines, the 48.8% over rate and -6.9% over ROI indicate consistent line inflation. Target unders in favorable matchups for better long-term value.
What's Herbert Jones's average Blocks all games?
Herbert Jones averages 0.73 blocks per game across 41 games, which sits +0.21 above the standard 0.52 line. This significant differential creates apparent value, but the poor over performance suggests books adjust lines effectively to negate the edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones blocks unders when New Orleans faces efficient offensive teams that limit his steal-to-block conversion opportunities. Avoid betting during back-to-back situations where his defensive intensity may fluctuate, and focus on games with clear pace/style advantages.