Herbert Jones has been a consistent under performer on assists props with 1 day rest, going 8-16-0 (33.3% overs) across 24 games. His 2.46 average falls 0.2 assists short of the typical 2.62 line, generating +27.3% ROI on unders. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's assists struggles on 1 day rest stem from his role as a defensive specialist who sees reduced playmaking responsibilities when the Pelicans operate on shorter rest. The 2.46 average against a 2.62 line reveals consistent market overvaluation of his passing output in these spots. Jones typically functions as the fourth or fifth option in New Orleans's offensive hierarchy, and when the team has limited preparation time, they lean more heavily on primary ball-handlers like CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. The 67% under rate across 24 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents nearly a full season of data showing Jones consistently falling short of inflated expectations. His longest under streak of 7 games demonstrates how this pattern can persist for extended periods. The current streak of 1 under suggests we're potentially at the beginning of another extended run. Most concerning for over bettors is that Jones's defensive responsibilities often increase on shorter rest as coaches prioritize his elite perimeter defense over offensive creation. This role compression naturally limits his assist opportunities as he focuses on disrupting opponents rather than facilitating offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 67% under rate and -0.2 average differential provide a meaningful edge, but the moderate sample size prevents high confidence. Target this when Jones faces elite offensive opponents where his defensive workload will be maximized, further limiting playmaking opportunities. Main risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his assist total unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones is 8-16-0 (33.3% overs) on assists props with 1 day rest across 24 games from October 2023 to April 2024, showing consistent under performance in these scheduling spots.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Assists 1 day rest?
Lean under on Herbert Jones assists with 1 day rest. The 67% under rate and -0.2 average differential provide a meaningful edge, especially when he faces strong offensive opponents requiring maximum defensive focus.
What's Herbert Jones's average Assists 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones averages 2.46 assists with 1 day rest, falling 0.2 assists short of the typical 2.62 line. This consistent shortfall has generated +27.3% ROI for under bettors across 24 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones assists unders when New Orleans plays on 1 day rest against elite offensive teams. His defensive responsibilities increase in these spots, limiting playmaking opportunities and creating the strongest under conditions.