Herbert Jones has been a reliable under play for assists at home, hitting just 40.0% overs across 20 games with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs. His 2.55 average sits 0.1 assists below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders with +14.6% returns.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's assist struggles at home stem from his defined role as the Pelicans' defensive stopper and secondary offensive option. At the Smoothie King Center, Jones operates within a more structured system where his primary responsibilities center on perimeter defense and spot-up shooting rather than playmaking. The 2.55 home average reflects his limited ball-handling duties, particularly with Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum commanding primary creation responsibilities. Jones's assist opportunities become even more scarce in home games where the Pelicans often build leads and rely on their stars to close, reducing his floor time and limiting his chances to accumulate assists. The -0.1 differential between his performance and betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced playmaking role at home. His 40.0% over rate across 20 games represents a significant sample size that indicates genuine skill-based limitations rather than random variance. The consistency of this trend, combined with New Orleans's depth at guard positions, suggests Jones's assist production will remain constrained in home environments where his defensive intensity takes precedence over offensive facilitation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Herbert Jones's 40.0% over rate and -0.1 average differential create legitimate value on assist unders at home. The trend appears sustainable given his defensive-first role and limited ball-handling responsibilities in the Pelicans' structured home offense. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or increased usage if key playmakers face injury, but his current role definition supports continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Assists prop record home games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his assists prop in just 8 of 20 home games (40.0% rate) with an 8-12-0 record. His consistent struggles at home have produced a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoy +14.6% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Assists home games?
Bet under on Herbert Jones assists in home games. His 40.0% over rate and -0.1 average differential create clear value, supported by his defensive-first role that limits playmaking opportunities in New Orleans's structured home offense.
What's Herbert Jones's average Assists home games?
Herbert Jones averages 2.55 assists in home games, which sits 0.1 assists below typical betting lines of 2.65. This consistent gap reflects his limited ball-handling duties and defensive-focused role at the Smoothie King Center.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones assist unders specifically in home games where his defensive responsibilities take precedence. Avoid when key Pelicans playmakers are injured, as increased usage could boost his assist opportunities beyond his typical 2.55 average.