Herbert Jones presents a clear under opportunity with just 45.9% overs hitting across 37 games this season. His 2.65 assists average barely exceeds the 2.58 line, generating positive ROI on unders while overs bleed at -12.3%. The defensive specialist's limited playmaking role makes unders the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's assist prop reveals the market's persistent overvaluation of his playmaking contributions. As New Orleans's defensive anchor, Jones averages just 2.65 assists against a 2.58 line, creating minimal value for overs despite the slight edge. The 45.9% over rate across 37 games demonstrates consistent underperformance relative to market expectations. Jones operates primarily as a wing defender and spot-up shooter, rarely initiating offense or running sets. His assist opportunities depend heavily on transition situations and kick-out passes from drives, making his production volatile and unpredictable. The Pelicans' offensive hierarchy places Jones well down the pecking order behind primary creators like CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. When the team struggles offensively, Jones's assist numbers suffer as he focuses more on defensive assignments and catch-and-shoot opportunities. The +3.2% ROI on unders versus -12.3% on overs clearly illustrates where the value lies. Jones's role as a defensive specialist limits his touches in half-court sets, and his assist production lacks the consistency needed to justify betting overs regularly. The market continues to price his props based on occasional high-assist games rather than his typical defensive-focused role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones's defensive-first role and 45.9% over rate create consistent under value, especially with the +3.2% ROI advantage. Target unders when the Pelicans face elite offenses that force Jones into heavy defensive assignments, limiting his offensive touches and playmaking opportunities. The primary risk lies in blowout games where garbage time creates artificial assist inflation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Herbert Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Assists prop record all games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his assists prop in just 17 of 37 games (45.9%) this season, hitting unders at a 54.1% rate. His under bets have generated a positive 3.2% ROI while overs have lost 12.3%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Assists all games?
Bet under on Herbert Jones assists. His 45.9% over rate and defensive-specialist role create consistent value on unders, particularly when facing elite offenses that limit his offensive touches and playmaking opportunities throughout games.
What's Herbert Jones's average Assists all games?
Herbert Jones averages 2.65 assists per game against a typical line of 2.58. While this creates a slight positive differential of +0.1, the minimal edge fails to overcome the market's overvaluation of his playmaking role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones assist unders when the Pelicans face elite defensive teams or when he's matched against top offensive players requiring heavy defensive focus. These situations minimize his offensive touches and playmaking responsibilities significantly.