Grayson Allen's three-pointers made prop on one day rest shows perfect balance with a 14-14-0 record and 50.0% over rate. While his 2.64 average beats the typical 2.43 line by 0.2 makes, the -4.5% ROI on both sides signals efficient market pricing with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
The 28-game sample reveals a fascinating case of market efficiency in player props. Allen's 2.64 average on one day rest represents a meaningful 8.6% boost over his typical line, yet the perfect 50-50 split suggests oddsmakers have fully adjusted for this rest advantage. The consistent performance across this substantial sample indicates Allen maintains his shooting rhythm and volume with standard rest, neither benefiting dramatically from extra recovery nor suffering from rust. Phoenix's pace and Allen's role as a spot-up shooter create stable conditions that reduce variance in his three-point attempts. The equal four-game streaks in both directions demonstrate the natural ebb and flow of shooting variance rather than any systematic bias. Most telling is the identical -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating the market has perfectly calibrated to Allen's rest patterns. Without additional context like opponent strength, home/away splits, or seasonal trends, this becomes a pure coin flip where the house edge makes both sides negative expected value plays.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Despite Allen averaging 0.2 makes above the typical line on one day rest, the perfect 14-14 record and matching -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates a perfectly efficient market. The 28-game sample provides enough data for oddsmakers to eliminate any exploitable edge. Without additional context or market inefficiencies, this prop offers no positive expected value on either side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Grayson Allen's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Grayson Allen's three-pointers made prop on one day rest shows a perfectly balanced 14-14-0 record over 28 games, resulting in exactly 50.0% overs. His average of 2.64 makes slightly exceeds typical lines but hasn't created betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Grayson Allen 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Pass on both sides. The perfect 14-14 record and identical -4.5% ROI indicate the market has efficiently priced Allen's rest advantage. Without additional context or line value, neither over nor under offers positive expected value for bettors.
What's Grayson Allen's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Allen averages 2.64 three-pointers made on one day rest, which is 0.2 makes above the typical 2.43 line. However, this 8.6% boost appears fully baked into current market pricing based on the balanced historical results.
How reliable is this trend?
Look for situational advantages beyond rest patterns. Focus on matchups against poor perimeter defenses, games with elevated pace projections, or when Allen's minutes/usage might increase due to injuries. Pure rest-based props appear efficiently priced.