Grayson Allen shows a meaningful edge on Three Pointers Made overs in home games, hitting 10-9-0 (52.6%) with a solid +1.2 differential above the typical 2.61 line. His 3.79 home average suggests consistent value on overs when the price is right.
Expert Analysis
Allen's home three-point production reveals a player who thrives in familiar surroundings, averaging 3.79 makes against lines typically set around 2.61. This +1.2 differential isn't massive, but it's persistent enough across 19 games to suggest legitimate home court advantages. The 52.6% over rate might seem modest, but combined with the positive differential, it indicates consistent line value rather than volatile boom-bust performances. Allen benefits from Phoenix's pace and offensive system at home, where crowd energy and familiar sight lines can enhance shooting rhythm. The lack of extreme streaks (longest runs of just 3 games either way) suggests steady production rather than hot-cold volatility that kills bankrolls. However, the minimal ROI on overs (+0.5%) warns against chasing this trend at inflated prices. Allen's role as a complementary shooter means his volume can fluctuate based on game flow and teammate availability. The current 1-game under streak isn't concerning given the short streak history, but it's worth monitoring if it extends. This trend appears sustainable because it's rooted in environmental factors (home court, offensive system) rather than unsustainable shooting percentages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence on Allen's Three Pointers Made props at home when the line sits at 2.5 or below. The +1.2 differential provides consistent value, and his 3.79 average suggests he regularly exceeds typical market expectations. Main risk is role fluctuation in blowouts or when Phoenix's offensive flow changes, but the home environment consistently elevates his three-point volume and accuracy.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Grayson Allen's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Allen's Three Pointers Made prop record in home games stands at 10-9-0 (52.6% overs) across 19 games. He averages 3.79 makes at home, consistently beating the typical 2.61 line by 1.2 makes per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Grayson Allen 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Allen's Three Pointers Made at home when the line is 2.5 or lower. His 3.79 home average and +1.2 differential above typical lines provide consistent value, though avoid inflated prices above 3.0.
What's Grayson Allen's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Allen averages 3.79 Three Pointers Made in home games, which is 1.2 makes above the typical 2.61 line. This differential represents solid value for over bettors when lines stay reasonable around 2.5 or below.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Allen's three-point props early in the week when lines are fresh, focusing on home games with totals around 2.5. Avoid betting after line moves above 3.0 or in potential blowout spots where his minutes might be limited.