Grayson Allen's points prop on one day of rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.4% of overs across 28 games with a negative 11.4% ROI on overs. His 13.43 average beats the 12.21 line by 1.2 points, but the consistent under performance suggests value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Grayson Allen's points production on one day of rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw performance and betting market efficiency. While his 13.43 scoring average exceeds the typical 12.21 line by a meaningful 1.2 points, the over has cashed just 13 times in 28 attempts, creating a substantial 11.4% ROI drain for over bettors. This pattern suggests the market consistently overvalues Allen's scoring potential in this rest scenario. The under side shows positive 2.3% ROI, indicating sustainable value despite the higher average. Allen's role as a complementary scorer makes him vulnerable to game script variations and teammate usage fluctuations that may not be fully captured in the raw scoring average. The persistence of this trend across nearly 30 games spanning multiple months suggests structural factors rather than random variance. Phoenix's depth and Allen's inconsistent usage patterns likely contribute to this under-performance relative to market expectations. The longest under streak of four games demonstrates the trend's staying power, while the current one-game over streak represents a potential entry point for under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.6% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite Allen's higher scoring average. The market appears to consistently overestimate his production on one day of rest, making the under the preferred play. Primary risk is Allen's demonstrated ability to exceed his line average, requiring careful line shopping and avoiding inflated numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 25.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 26.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Grayson Allen's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Grayson Allen's points prop record on one day of rest is 13-15-0, hitting the over just 46.4% of the time. This under-performance has generated a negative 11.4% ROI for over bettors across 28 games from November 2023 through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Grayson Allen Points 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Grayson Allen's points with one day of rest. Despite averaging 13.43 points versus a 12.21 line, the under hits 53.6% of the time with positive ROI, indicating consistent market overvaluation of his scoring in this situation.
What's Grayson Allen's average Points 1 day rest?
Grayson Allen averages 13.43 points on one day of rest, which is 1.2 points above his typical 12.21 line. However, this higher average is misleading as the over still loses money long-term, hitting just 46.4% of attempts.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Grayson Allen's points props is on the under with one day of rest, particularly after over streaks. The current one-game over streak may provide optimal entry timing following the established 53.6% under trend.