Grayson Allen's points props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over rates across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.8 differential versus the line. The under has delivered +14.6% ROI while overs have burned -23.6%. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a player consistently falling short of market expectations. Allen's 12.0 scoring average trails his typical 12.8 line by nearly a full point, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his recent form. This isn't just variance—it's a systematic pattern of underperformance that's created sustainable value on the under. The 4-6 over/under record understates the severity, as Allen has managed just one modest over streak compared to a three-game under run. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the shortfall. Rather than wild swings above and below the line, Allen has been methodically disappointing, averaging nearly a point below expectations. This suggests role changes, defensive attention, or shot selection issues that haven't been fully priced into the market. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp bettors have likely caught on, but recreational money continues to inflate these lines. Without additional context on matchups or usage changes, the raw trend strongly favors continued under performance until the market corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.8 differential and 40% over rate create clear value on Allen's points unders, particularly when the line sits at 12.5 or higher. The consistency of underperformance suggests this isn't random variance but a legitimate market inefficiency. Primary risk is potential role expansion or a hot shooting stretch that could quickly reverse this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 20.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Grayson Allen's Points prop record last 10 games?
Grayson Allen has gone over his points total in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with 6 unders. His scoring average of 12.0 points falls 0.8 points short of his typical 12.8 line during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Grayson Allen Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Allen's points props. The 40% over rate and -0.8 differential create clear value, especially when lines are set at 12.5 or higher. Under bets have generated +14.6% ROI in this sample.
What's Grayson Allen's average Points last 10 games?
Allen is averaging 12.0 points over his last 10 games, which trails his typical line of 12.8 by 0.8 points. This consistent shortfall has created excellent value for under bettors throughout this recent stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Allen points unders when lines are set at 12.5 or higher, particularly in road games or against stronger defenses. Avoid when he's coming off multiple under performances, as variance could swing back toward the mean.