Gradey Dick's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value with a 46.2% over rate (6-7-0) and -0.2 differential from the typical 2.12 line. The -11.9% ROI on overs versus +2.8% on unders creates a profitable fade opportunity in a 13-game sample.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of an overvalued line for Gradey Dick's three-point production. Averaging 1.92 makes against a 2.12 line represents meaningful value, particularly when considering the Raptors' offensive system and Dick's role within it. As a developing second-year player, Dick's three-point attempts fluctuate based on game flow, matchup dynamics, and his confidence level on any given night. The 46.2% over rate suggests books are pricing his ceiling rather than his median performance, a common trap with young shooters who show flashes but lack consistency. Toronto's pace and offensive philosophy under Darko Rajakovic emphasizes ball movement, but Dick's minutes and shot attempts remain somewhat volatile depending on the game situation and his defensive matchup. The sustainable under trend likely stems from Dick's shot selection improving as he matures, taking fewer contested attempts that inflated his early-season numbers. His role as a complementary piece rather than a primary option means his three-point volume depends heavily on how the offense flows through established players like Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett. The modest positive ROI on unders (+2.8%) combined with the significant negative return on overs (-11.9%) indicates this isn't just variance but a systematic pricing inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.2 differential and 53.8% under rate create sustainable value, especially given Dick's evolving role in Toronto's offense. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, as his median performance consistently falls short of inflated expectations. Main risk is a breakout shooting performance that could shift market perception.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gradey Dick's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Gradey Dick has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of 13 games (46.2%) while going under 7 times. His record shows a clear lean toward under results with a modest 1-game under streak currently active.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gradey Dick 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Gradey Dick's three-pointers made props. The -0.2 differential from his 1.92 average to the typical 2.12 line, combined with 53.8% under rate, creates consistent value for under bettors.
What's Gradey Dick's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Gradey Dick averages 1.92 three-pointers made per game, which sits 0.2 below the typical line of 2.12. This differential represents meaningful value for under bettors in a 13-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gradey Dick three-pointers made unders when the line is 2.0 or higher, particularly in games where Toronto faces strong perimeter defense or when game script favors ball movement over individual shot creation.