Gary Trent Jr.'s three-pointers made prop at home presents a slight under edge with 47.1% overs hitting (8-9 record) and -10.2% ROI on overs versus +1.1% on unders. The 2.53 average nearly matches the 2.56 line, suggesting lean under value.
Expert Analysis
Gary Trent Jr.'s home three-point production reveals a subtle but consistent pattern favoring unders. His 2.53 average at home sits just 0.03 makes below the typical 2.56 line, creating razor-thin margins that have translated into a 52.9% under hit rate across 17 games. The -10.2% ROI on overs indicates the market may be slightly overvaluing his home shooting volume, while the modest +1.1% under ROI suggests sustainable edge without dramatic regression risk. Trent Jr.'s current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, though his four-game over streak earlier in the sample shows he can get hot. The lack of dramatic splits data suggests this isn't driven by specific matchup dependencies but rather reflects his natural shooting variance in the familiar Scotiabank Arena environment. Home court advantage typically helps shooters, but Trent Jr.'s case demonstrates that market adjustment can eliminate that edge. The tight clustering around his average suggests consistent role and usage, making this trend more about precise line value than dramatic performance swings. Without major roster changes or usage shifts, this pattern should persist as a low-volatility under lean.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 52.9% under hit rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge in a tightly-clustered prop market. Target games where the line sits at 2.5 or higher for maximum value. Main risk is Trent Jr. entering a hot shooting stretch that could temporarily inflate his home averages.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gary Trent Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Gary Trent Jr. has gone 8-9 on three-pointers made overs in home games this season, hitting just 47.1% of his over bets. His 2.53 average at home sits slightly below the typical 2.56 line, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gary Trent Jr. 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Gary Trent Jr.'s three-pointers made at home. The 52.9% under hit rate and positive under ROI of +1.1% versus -10.2% over ROI creates a sustainable edge in this tightly-priced market.
What's Gary Trent Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Gary Trent Jr. averages 2.53 three-pointers made in home games, which sits 0.03 below the typical 2.56 line. This small but consistent gap has translated into profitable under betting opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gary Trent Jr. three-point unders when the line is set at 2.5 or higher at home games. His consistent performance clustering around 2.53 makes higher lines particularly valuable for under betting.