Fred VanVleet's three-pointers made prop with one day rest shows a clear under bias, hitting the over just 41.3% of the time across 46 games. Despite averaging 3.17 makes against a 2.83 line, the under delivers a solid 12.1% ROI while overs lose 21.1%. This creates a consistent fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about VanVleet's three-point shooting patterns with standard rest. While his 3.17 average suggests he should clear the typical 2.83 line regularly, the reality is far different. This 41.3% over rate indicates books are setting lines that account for VanVleet's reputation rather than his actual performance in this rest scenario. The negative 21.1% ROI on overs is particularly striking given the seemingly favorable 0.3 differential between his average and the line. This suggests VanVleet experiences more variance in his three-point attempts or efficiency with one day rest, possibly due to rhythm disruption or game script factors. The fact that unders generate positive 12.1% ROI across a substantial 46-game sample indicates this isn't random noise but a persistent pattern. VanVleet's shooting mechanics and shot selection may be more sensitive to rest patterns than typical players, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. The current two-game over streak aligns with his longest over streak of three games, suggesting any hot shooting is likely temporary given the underlying trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 12.1% ROI on unders across 46 games provides a solid foundation, though the modest edge requires careful line shopping. VanVleet's three-point props with one day rest favor the under despite his respectable 3.17 average. The key risk is variance in a small sample, but the persistent pattern suggests books consistently overvalue his three-point output in this rest scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 10.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Fred VanVleet's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
VanVleet's three-pointers made prop with one day rest shows a 19-27 over/under record (41.3% overs) across 46 games from October 2023 to April 2024, generating negative 21.1% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Fred VanVleet 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on VanVleet's three-pointers made with one day rest. The under hits 58.7% of the time with positive 12.1% ROI, indicating books consistently overprice his three-point output in this scenario.
What's Fred VanVleet's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
VanVleet averages 3.17 three-pointers made with one day rest against a typical 2.83 line, creating a seemingly favorable 0.3 differential that misleadingly suggests over value despite poor over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target VanVleet three-point unders specifically with one day rest, as this scenario shows the strongest edge. Avoid overs during hot streaks, as his longest over streak is just three games historically.