Franz Wagner's three-pointers made props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 42.0% of overs across 50 games with a -19.8% ROI on overs. His 1.36 average falls 0.1 short of the typical 1.5 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern in Franz Wagner's three-point shooting when operating on one day rest. Across 50 games, Wagner has consistently underperformed the betting market's expectations, averaging just 1.36 made threes against lines typically set around 1.5. This 0.1 differential might seem marginal, but it represents a systematic edge that has generated a profitable 10.7% ROI for under bettors. The 42.0% over rate indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Wagner's reduced three-point volume in these rest situations. Several factors likely contribute to this trend. One day rest scenarios often involve back-to-back games or compressed schedules where players may experience slight fatigue affecting shooting mechanics. Wagner's role as a primary facilitator for Orlando means he's often more focused on creating shots for teammates rather than hunting his own looks from beyond the arc. The Magic's pace and offensive flow may also shift in these situations, leading to fewer quality three-point opportunities for Wagner. The current two-game over streak shouldn't overshadow the longer-term pattern, especially considering Wagner's longest under streak reached eight games, demonstrating the persistence of this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.0% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge that hasn't been priced out by the market. Target this bet when Wagner faces defensive-minded opponents or when Orlando's pace projects to be slower, as these conditions amplify his tendency to fall short of three-point expectations. The main risk is Wagner's recent hot streak continuing, but the underlying factors suggest regression to his established pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Franz Wagner's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Franz Wagner has gone over his three-pointers made prop just 21 times in 50 games on one day rest, posting a 42.0% over rate. This translates to 21-29-0 over/under record with consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Franz Wagner 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Franz Wagner's three-pointers made when he has one day rest. The 58.0% under rate and 10.7% ROI provide a clear edge, especially when the line sits at 1.5 or higher against his 1.36 average.
What's Franz Wagner's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Franz Wagner averages 1.36 three-pointers made on one day rest, which falls 0.1 short of the typical 1.5 line. This consistent shortfall has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Franz Wagner's three-point unders specifically on one day rest situations, particularly against strong defensive teams or when Orlando's projected pace is below average. Avoid when he's facing weak perimeter defenses or in potential shootout scenarios.