Franz Wagner's steal props at home present a clear edge with an 18-14 over record (56.2%) and a healthy +0.3 average differential above typical lines. The +7.4% ROI on overs against consistent -16.5% under losses signals sustainable value. Lean over on Wagner's steal totals in Orlando.
Expert Analysis
Wagner's home steal advantage stems from Orlando's defensive scheme and his expanded role in familiar surroundings. The 1.06 average significantly outpaces the 0.78 baseline, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his increased defensive activity at Amway Center. This isn't random variance—Wagner's comfort level at home translates to more aggressive defensive positioning and anticipation routes. The 32-game sample provides statistical significance, while the consistent +0.3 differential indicates the market remains slow to react. Orlando's pace and defensive philosophy create more steal opportunities, with Wagner serving as a primary disruptor. The balanced streak patterns (longest over and under both at 4 games) suggest sustainable rather than streaky performance. However, the moderate 56.2% hit rate means this isn't a slam dunk—it's a grind-it-out edge that requires proper bankroll management. Books may eventually catch up to Wagner's home defensive metrics, but current pricing still offers value for disciplined bettors who understand variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wagner's 1.06 home average against 0.78 lines creates consistent value, backed by 32 games of data showing 56.2% over success. The +7.4% ROI demonstrates sustainable edge despite moderate hit rates. Target games where Orlando faces uptempo opponents or teams prone to turnovers. Main risk is regression to league-average steal rates as Wagner's role potentially shifts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Franz Wagner's Steals prop record home games?
Franz Wagner has gone over his steals prop in 18 of 32 home games (56.2% hit rate) with an average of 1.06 steals per game, creating a +7.4% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Franz Wagner Steals home games?
Lean over on Wagner's steal props at home. His 1.06 average significantly exceeds typical 0.78 lines, and the 56.2% over rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable value despite moderate hit rates.
What's Franz Wagner's average Steals home games?
Wagner averages 1.06 steals in home games compared to typical lines around 0.78, creating a favorable +0.3 differential that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home defensive performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wagner steal overs at home against uptempo teams or turnover-prone opponents. His comfort at Amway Center maximizes defensive positioning, making familiar matchups and pace-up spots ideal betting opportunities.