Evan Mobley's three-point shooting has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just twice for a brutal 20% rate while averaging 0.6 makes against a 1.1 line. The under has delivered a robust 52.7% ROI, creating a compelling fade opportunity on his perimeter attempts.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's three-point struggles represent a dramatic departure from his early-season form, with the 0.5 negative differential suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his recent shooting woes. The 20% over rate across 10 games indicates a systematic issue rather than random variance, likely stemming from defensive adjustments that force him into more contested looks or a conscious shift in Cleveland's offensive philosophy that emphasizes his interior presence. The 4-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while the isolated single over suggests occasional variance rather than meaningful improvement. What makes this particularly compelling is the sample size adequacy combined with the significant line differential—books appear to be pricing based on season-long averages rather than recent form. The ROI disparity between overs (-61.8%) and unders (+52.7%) creates clear value, especially considering Mobley's natural skill set favors interior play over perimeter shooting. Without meaningful changes to Cleveland's system or Mobley's role, this trend appears sustainable in the short term, though regression remains possible if the Cavaliers specifically scheme to get him cleaner three-point looks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.5 negative differential combined with just 20% overs suggests books haven't caught up to Mobley's recent three-point struggles. Target this prop when Cleveland faces elite interior defenses that might theoretically push him outside, but expect continued under results as his role emphasizes paint touches over perimeter shooting. Main risk is a conscious effort by Cleveland to feature his outside shot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Mobley has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his three-pointers made prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaging 0.6 makes against lines typically set around 1.1, creating a 0.5 negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Mobley's three-pointers made props. The 20% over rate and 52.7% ROI on unders over 10 games suggests books haven't adjusted to his recent shooting struggles, creating clear value on the under.
What's Evan Mobley's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Mobley is averaging 0.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line, representing a significant 0.5 negative differential that indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations on his perimeter shooting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley's three-point unders when Cleveland faces teams that theoretically should push him outside but where his natural interior role remains unchanged. Avoid when the Cavaliers specifically emphasize perimeter shooting or face pace-up spots that increase attempt volume.