Evan Mobley's three-point prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 30.8% of overs across 13 games with a -0.2 differential from the typical 0.73 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, this trend shows remarkable consistency for disciplined bettors.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's home three-point struggles stem from Cleveland's interior-focused offensive system and his natural role as a rim-running center. The 0.54 average against a 0.73 line reveals consistent market overvaluation, likely influenced by his occasional flashes of perimeter shooting that create recency bias. The five-game under streak isn't aberrational—it reflects his fundamental usage pattern where three-point attempts are opportunistic rather than schematic. Home games particularly favor this under trend because the Cavaliers can dictate pace and style, emphasizing Mobley's strengths in the paint rather than forcing perimeter shots to keep pace. The 30.8% over rate across 13 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -41.3% over ROI demonstrates how severely the market misevaluates this prop. Mobley's three-point shooting remains developmental rather than reliable, making these lines consistently inflated. The biggest risk lies in potential lineup changes or specific matchups against small-ball lineups that could force Cleveland to space the floor differently, but these scenarios remain exceptions rather than the rule in home environments where the Cavaliers control game flow.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mobley's 0.54 home average consistently trails the typical 0.73 line, creating a sustainable edge reinforced by Cleveland's interior-heavy system. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5 or higher, particularly against traditional frontcourts that won't force spacing adjustments. The primary risk involves small-ball matchups requiring perimeter shooting, but these remain outlier scenarios in home games where Cleveland dictates tempo and style.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Mobley goes 4-9 on three-point overs in home games (30.8% hit rate), averaging 0.54 makes against the typical 0.73 line. He's currently on a five-game under streak with strong season-long consistency favoring the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Mobley's 0.54 home average consistently trails the line, supported by Cleveland's interior-focused system and his natural role as a rim-running center rather than perimeter threat.
What's Evan Mobley's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Mobley averages 0.54 three-pointers made in home games, running 0.2 below the typical 0.73 line. This consistent gap creates a mathematical edge, particularly when lines are set at 0.5 or higher.
How reliable is this trend?
Target the under when lines hit 0.5 or higher, especially against traditional frontcourts that won't force spacing. Avoid when Cleveland faces small-ball lineups requiring perimeter shooting to match pace and spacing.