Evan Mobley's rebounding props present a compelling over opportunity with a 60.0% hit rate (6-4-0 record) over his last 10 games. Despite averaging 9.1 rebounds against a 9.3 line, the +14.6% ROI on overs suggests consistent upside value. Lean Over.
Expert Analysis
The surface numbers tell only part of Mobley's rebounding story. While his 9.1 average sits 0.2 boards below the typical 9.3 line, the 60% over rate combined with a robust +14.6% ROI indicates the market consistently undervalues his rebounding ceiling. This pattern suggests Mobley's rebounding production comes in clusters rather than steady averages, creating exploitable variance. The Cleveland big man's rebounding numbers likely fluctuate based on game script, opponent pace, and his teammates' shooting performance—factors that create volatility the betting market struggles to price accurately. His recent form shows a single under in his last game, breaking what was likely a stronger over streak given the 3-game maximum over run versus just 2 games for the longest under streak. This suggests his rebounding surges come in meaningful stretches rather than isolated performances. The key concern lies in the -0.2 differential between his average and the line, indicating books may be learning to adjust. However, the positive ROI on overs demonstrates that even when Mobley falls short of his line, the victories are substantial enough to maintain profitability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and +14.6% ROI create a clear edge despite the slightly negative average differential. Mobley's rebounding appears to come in profitable clusters that the market undervalues. The recent single under suggests potential regression to his over-hitting form. Primary risk remains the tight differential, but the ROI data indicates his overs win big enough to offset modest unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-28 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rebounds Prop Lines
Compare Evan Mobley props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Mobley has gone over his rebounding prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% hit rate) with a 6-4-0 record. This solid over performance has generated a +14.6% return on investment for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Rebounds last 10 games?
Lean over on Mobley's rebounding props. The 60% over rate combined with a strong +14.6% ROI indicates the market consistently underprices his rebounding upside, creating profitable betting opportunities despite his average sitting slightly below typical lines.
What's Evan Mobley's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Mobley is averaging 9.1 rebounds over his last 10 games, which sits 0.2 boards below the typical 9.3 line. However, his 60% over rate suggests this average masks more volatile production that favors over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley rebounding overs when he's coming off an under performance, as his single-game under streak suggests quick regression to over-hitting form. His 3-game over streak capability indicates sustained hot stretches create optimal betting windows.