Evan Mobley shows a modest over tendency in rebounds with a 54.3% hit rate (25-21-0) across 46 games, though his 9.24 average barely trails the typical 9.33 line. The +3.8% ROI on overs suggests a slight edge, making this a lean over situation with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's rebounding profile reveals a player consistently hovering around his line with minimal deviation, averaging 9.24 rebounds against a 9.33 standard. The 54.3% over rate represents a modest edge, but the -0.1 differential indicates books are pricing him accurately. What makes this trend compelling is the sustainability factor—Mobley's role as Cleveland's primary interior presence ensures consistent rebounding opportunities regardless of game flow. His longest over streak of six games demonstrates he can string together productive stretches, while the current single-game under streak suggests potential regression to his over-leaning baseline. The +3.8% ROI on overs, contrasted with a punishing -12.8% on unders, indicates the market may be slightly undervaluing his rebounding floor. However, the tight differential warns against expecting dramatic overs—this is about grinding out 10-11 rebound performances rather than explosive 15+ nights. Mobley's consistency as a rebounder makes him less volatile than many centers, creating a reliable but modest edge for patient bettors willing to accept smaller margins.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.3% over rate and +3.8% ROI provide a measurable edge, though the minimal -0.1 differential keeps expectations grounded. Target overs when the line sits at 9.5 or lower, as Mobley's 9.24 average gives reasonable margin for success. The main risk is his consistency working against explosive performances, making this more about steady 10-11 rebound games than ceiling plays.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-28 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Rebounds prop record all games?
Evan Mobley's rebounds prop record stands at 25-21-0 over/under across 46 games, representing a 54.3% over rate. This translates to a modest +3.8% ROI on overs while unders have produced a painful -12.8% return for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Rebounds all games?
Lean over on Mobley's rebounds props. The 54.3% over rate and positive ROI provide a measurable edge, though expect modest 10-11 rebound performances rather than explosive games. Target lines at 9.5 or lower for optimal value.
What's Evan Mobley's average Rebounds all games?
Mobley averages 9.24 rebounds per game against a typical line of 9.33, creating a minimal -0.1 differential. This tight margin indicates accurate market pricing, though his slight under-performance suggests potential value on carefully selected overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley rebounds overs when the line drops to 9.5 or lower, maximizing the gap between his 9.24 average and the betting threshold. His consistency makes him less game-script dependent than most centers, providing steady opportunities.