Evan Mobley's blocks prop shows consistent under value with a 46.4% over rate (13-15-0) despite averaging 1.61 blocks against a 1.36 line. The -11.4% over ROI versus +2.3% under ROI creates a clear mathematical edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's blocks prop presents a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. Despite averaging 1.61 blocks against a typical 1.36 line, creating a healthy +0.25 differential, the overs have hit just 46.4% of the time with a brutal -11.4% ROI. This disconnect suggests the market consistently overvalues Mobley's shot-blocking ceiling relative to his realistic floor. The Cavaliers' defensive scheme often positions Mobley as a help defender rather than a primary rim protector, limiting his block opportunities compared to traditional centers. His 6'11" frame and mobility make him valuable in switching scenarios, but these assignments reduce his chances for the spectacular block totals that drive over bettors. The under trend gains strength from Mobley's consistent role within Cleveland's system, where his defensive impact comes more from positioning and deterrence than accumulating counting stats. With both his longest over and under streaks capping at four games, the volatility remains manageable, but the mathematical edge clearly favors the under. The key concern is whether oddsmakers will adjust lines lower, potentially eliminating this edge, but the current pricing structure rewards disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of 53.6% under rate and positive 2.3% under ROI creates a sustainable edge despite Mobley's strong per-game average. The market appears to consistently overestimate his block ceiling relative to Cleveland's defensive scheme that limits his rim protection opportunities. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments that could eliminate the current pricing inefficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Blocks prop record all games?
Mobley's blocks prop record stands at 13-15-0 over/under across 28 games, translating to a 46.4% over rate. The under has been the profitable side with a positive 2.3% ROI compared to the over's -11.4% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Blocks all games?
Bet the under on Mobley's blocks props. Despite his 1.61 average exceeding the typical 1.36 line, unders hit 53.6% of the time with positive ROI while overs lose money consistently at -11.4% returns.
What's Evan Mobley's average Blocks all games?
Mobley averages 1.61 blocks per game against a standard 1.36 line, creating a +0.25 differential. However, this favorable average is misleading as the under still hits 53.6% of the time due to his defensive role limitations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley blocks unders consistently given the 28-game sample showing clear market inefficiency. The edge appears strongest when lines remain around 1.5, as the market continues overvaluing his shot-blocking ceiling relative to defensive responsibilities.