Duncan Robinson's three-point prop shows a strong 64.7% over rate (11-6-0) on one day of rest, generating +23.5% ROI for over bettors. His 3.24 average exceeds the typical 3.09 line by 0.15 makes per game, creating consistent value on the over side.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's elevated three-point production on one day of rest reflects the optimal balance between rhythm maintenance and physical recovery that benefits elite shooters. The 64.7% over rate across 17 games suggests this isn't random variance but a meaningful edge tied to his playing style and Miami's offensive system. One day of rest allows Robinson to maintain his shooting stroke without the rust that can accumulate during longer breaks, while providing enough recovery to sustain his high-energy movement patterns that create quality looks. The +0.15 average differential above typical lines indicates sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to this split, creating ongoing value. Robinson's role as Miami's primary floor spacer means his three-point volume remains consistent regardless of game script, reducing the volatility that plagues many prop bets. The sample size of 17 games provides statistical significance while being recent enough to reflect current usage patterns. However, the recent one-game under streak serves as a reminder that even strong trends face natural regression, and Robinson's streaky nature as a shooter means individual game variance remains high despite the favorable overall pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 64.7% hit rate and positive ROI create a clear mathematical edge, while the 0.15 average differential suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. Robinson's role as Miami's primary three-point threat provides volume stability, and one day of rest appears optimal for maintaining his shooting rhythm. The main risk is natural regression from the strong recent performance and Robinson's inherent game-to-game volatility as a volume shooter.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Robinson goes over his three-point prop 64.7% of the time on one day rest, posting an 11-6-0 record across 17 games. This translates to hitting the over roughly two out of every three games in this specific rest situation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean over on Robinson's three-point props with one day rest. The 64.7% hit rate and +23.5% ROI create a mathematical edge, though his streaky shooting nature requires medium rather than high confidence in any single game.
What's Duncan Robinson's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Robinson averages 3.24 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to his typical 3.09 line, creating a 0.15 edge per game. This differential suggests sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted their pricing to this favorable split.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson's three-point props specifically on one day rest when he's averaged 3.24 makes with 64.7% over success. Avoid during longer rest periods or back-to-backs when his rhythm and volume patterns may shift unfavorably.