Duncan Robinson's three-pointers made props have hit over at a 60% clip across his last 10 games, generating a solid 14.6% ROI despite averaging exactly 2.5 makes against the typical 2.5 line. The Heat sharpshooter's consistency around his number creates modest value on overs.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's 6-4 over record masks a fascinating efficiency story that creates subtle betting value. While his 2.5 average perfectly matches the standard line, the 14.6% ROI on overs versus -23.6% on unders reveals the market's slight undervaluation of his floor. The Miami veteran's role as a floor-spacing specialist means his three-point volume remains remarkably stable regardless of game script, creating predictable outcomes that sharp bettors can exploit. Robinson's shooting mechanics and catch-and-shoot expertise translate to consistent make rates even when his attempts fluctuate slightly. The current single-game under streak represents natural variance rather than a concerning trend, as his longest over streak reached just two games, indicating steady performance rather than boom-bust cycles. Miami's offensive system maximizes Robinson's strengths through designed looks and secondary breaks, supporting his ability to consistently reach his number. The lack of extreme outliers in either direction suggests his prop lines are generally well-calibrated, but the positive ROI differential indicates the market may be pricing in slightly too much downside risk for a player whose role and skillset provide such reliable production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 60% over rate combined with the positive ROI differential suggests consistent value on overs around the 2.5 line. His role stability and elite shooting mechanics create a reliable floor that the market appears to undervalue slightly. The main risk is Miami's inconsistent offensive pace, but Robinson's catch-and-shoot expertise minimizes game script dependency, making overs the preferred play when the line sits at 2.5 or lower.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Duncan Robinson has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) while staying under 4 times. His overs have generated a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for unders, showing clear value on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet over on Duncan Robinson's three-pointers made props. His 60% over rate and positive 14.6% ROI indicate the market consistently undervalues his reliable floor production. The 6-4 over record with steady role makes overs the preferred play at standard lines.
What's Duncan Robinson's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Duncan Robinson is averaging exactly 2.5 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, matching the typical prop line perfectly. Despite the neutral differential, his 60% over rate and positive ROI on overs suggests he's slightly undervalued by the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Robinson's three-pointers made overs when the line is 2.5 or lower, especially in games where Miami faces pace-up spots or strong offensive opponents. His catch-and-shoot role provides stability regardless of game script, making overs consistently valuable.