Duncan Robinson's blocks prop presents one of the most lopsided edges in the NBA, hitting over just once in 11 games (9.1% rate) while averaging 0.18 blocks against a 0.5 line. With an 82.6% ROI loss on overs versus 73.5% profit on unders, this is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Duncan Robinson's blocks production represents a fundamental mismatch between his role and the betting line. As a 6'7" stretch forward who plays almost exclusively on the perimeter, Robinson's defensive positioning rarely puts him in shot-blocking situations. His 0.18 blocks per game average sits a massive 0.32 blocks below the standard 0.5 line, creating a structural edge that persists because casual bettors overestimate big men's blocking ability regardless of playing style. Robinson's defensive responsibilities focus on chasing shooters through screens and rotating to contest three-pointers, not protecting the rim. The sample size of 11 games shows remarkable consistency, with Robinson recording zero blocks in the vast majority of contests. His longest over streak reached just one game, while under streaks have extended to six games, indicating this isn't random variance but a systematic pattern. The 73.5% ROI on unders reflects the market's persistent mispricing of a player whose defensive impact comes through deflections and closeouts, not blocked shots. Robinson's role in Miami's switching defense keeps him away from the paint, where blocks typically occur.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Duncan Robinson's blocks under represents one of the NBA's most reliable prop bets, with a 90.9% hit rate driven by his perimeter-focused defensive role. The ideal condition is any game where Robinson projects for meaningful minutes, as his positioning and responsibilities make blocks extremely unlikely. The main risk is a potential line adjustment below 0.5, though even then the under likely remains profitable given his 0.18 average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Blocks prop record all games?
Duncan Robinson's blocks prop record stands at 1-10-0 over/under in 11 games, representing just a 9.1% over rate. He's averaged 0.18 blocks per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.32 differential that strongly favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Blocks all games?
Bet under on Duncan Robinson's blocks with high confidence. His 90.9% under rate and perimeter-focused defensive role create a systematic edge. The under has delivered 73.5% ROI while overs have lost 82.6%, making this one of the NBA's most reliable prop plays.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Blocks all games?
Duncan Robinson averages 0.18 blocks per game across 11 games, sitting significantly below the standard 0.5 blocks line. This -0.32 differential represents one of the largest gaps between player performance and betting line in the blocks market.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Duncan Robinson's blocks under whenever he's projected for regular rotation minutes. His perimeter defensive role makes blocks unlikely regardless of opponent or game script. Avoid only if the line drops below 0.5, though even then the under likely maintains value.