Duncan Robinson's assists props at home present a clear under opportunity, with the forward hitting just 33.3% of overs across 12 games while averaging 2.33 assists against a 2.75 line. The -0.4 differential and +27.3% under ROI signal consistent value on the lower side.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's home assist struggles stem from his defined role as a floor-spacing specialist rather than a primary facilitator. At home, the Heat's offensive flow typically runs through Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, relegating Robinson to catch-and-shoot duties on the perimeter. His 2.33 home average sits meaningfully below the standard 2.75 line, creating a structural edge that persists because books price him closer to his overall season numbers rather than this specific split. The 33.3% over rate across 12 games represents a substantial sample showing books haven't fully adjusted to his limited playmaking role in Miami's home offensive sets. Robinson's assist opportunities decrease at home because the Heat utilize more structured offensive sets in familiar surroundings, reducing the scramble situations where role players typically accumulate assists. His recent streak patterns show longer under runs than over runs, suggesting when he falls below expectations, it tends to continue for multiple games. The -36.4% over ROI indicates significant market inefficiency, while the +27.3% under ROI confirms this isn't just variance but a legitimate edge. Robinson's assist ceiling remains capped by his shooting-first mentality and limited ball-handling responsibilities in Miami's hierarchy.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 2.33 home average creates consistent value against the typical 2.75 line, supported by his defined role as a shooter rather than facilitator. The 33.3% over rate across 12 games and +27.3% under ROI indicate sustainable value. Main risk is an unusually high-assist game inflating his average, but his role limitations make this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Assists prop record home games?
Robinson is 4-8-0 over/under on assists props in home games, hitting just 33.3% of overs across 12 games. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance against the betting line in Miami's home venue.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Assists home games?
Bet under on Robinson's assists at home. His 2.33 average sits well below typical 2.75 lines, with only 33.3% overs and +27.3% under ROI showing consistent value on the lower side.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Assists home games?
Robinson averages 2.33 assists in home games, which sits 0.4 assists below the typical 2.75 line. This differential creates a structural edge for under bettors in Miami's home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson assist unders specifically in home games where he averages 2.33 versus 2.75 lines. Avoid road games where this edge may not exist due to different offensive dynamics.