Duncan Robinson's assist props show clear under value with a 43.5% over rate across 23 games, despite averaging just 0.16 assists above the typical 2.8 line. The -17.0% ROI on overs versus +7.9% on unders creates a profitable fade opportunity on a player whose primary role remains floor spacing.
Expert Analysis
Duncan Robinson's assist numbers reveal a fundamental disconnect between his role and betting market expectations. While averaging 2.96 assists against a 2.8 line suggests marginal over value, the 43.5% over rate tells the real story - books are consistently setting lines Robinson struggles to clear. His role as Miami's primary floor spacer limits playmaking opportunities, as he typically receives the ball in catch-and-shoot situations rather than initiating offense. The Heat's offensive system funnels assists through Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, leaving Robinson with incidental assists from drive-and-kicks or hockey assists. The -17.0% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't adjusted to Robinson's limited facilitation upside, while the +7.9% under ROI suggests sustainable value. Robinson's assist production lacks the volatility needed for consistent over hits - his longest over streak maxed at four games, matching his longest under run. This consistency in underwhelming playmaking creates a reliable betting pattern. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but Robinson's fundamental role constraints suggest this under trend should persist regardless of matchup variables.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 43.5% over rate combined with negative over ROI creates clear under value, though the small 0.16 assist differential prevents high conviction. Target unders when lines reach 3.0 or higher, as Robinson's floor-spacing role naturally limits playmaking opportunities. Main risk involves Miami's potential offensive evolution or increased Robinson usage in specific matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Assists prop record all games?
Duncan Robinson has gone over his assists prop in 10 of 23 games (43.5% rate) with a 10-13-0 over/under record. This under-performance has generated negative ROI for over bettors at -17.0%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Assists all games?
Lean under on Robinson's assists props. His 43.5% over rate and -17.0% over ROI indicate consistent under value, particularly when lines reach 3.0 assists where his role limitations become most apparent.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Assists all games?
Robinson averages 2.96 assists per game, just 0.16 above the typical 2.8 line. While this appears favorable for overs, his low over rate of 43.5% reveals the market hasn't properly adjusted to his limited playmaking ceiling.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson assist unders when lines reach 3.0 or higher, as his floor-spacing role creates natural ceiling limitations. Avoid during potential Heat lineup changes that could increase his ball-handling responsibilities.