Draymond Green's blocks prop shows exceptional home court value, hitting the over in 66.7% of games (10-5-0 record) with a massive +27.3% ROI. Green averages 1.13 blocks at home against typical 0.63 lines, creating a consistent half-block edge that sharp bettors should target aggressively.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a compelling structural advantage in Green's home blocks production that transcends normal variance. His 1.13 home average against 0.63 lines represents an 80% premium over the market expectation, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his defensive impact at Chase Center. This isn't random hot shooting - blocks correlate strongly with defensive positioning, crowd energy, and familiarity with rim protection angles that favor home court advantage. Green's defensive IQ and help-side timing improve measurably in familiar surroundings, where he can better anticipate opponent tendencies and communicate with teammates. The four-game over streak indicates current form aligning with the broader trend, while the longest under streak of just two games suggests remarkable consistency. The -36.4% under ROI demonstrates how punishing this market has been for contrarian bettors. However, regression risk exists if opposing teams begin attacking away from Green more frequently, or if his minutes decrease in blowouts. The sample size of 15 games provides solid confidence, though monitoring opponent pace and Green's foul trouble remains crucial for optimal timing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 66.7% hit rate and +0.5 average differential create genuine value, particularly when Green plays heavy minutes against uptempo opponents. The home court defensive positioning advantage appears sustainable, making this a profitable long-term approach. Primary risk involves potential rest games or early foul trouble limiting his defensive impact in specific matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Draymond Green's Blocks prop record home games?
Draymond Green's blocks prop at home games shows a 10-5-0 over/under record (66.7% overs) with an impressive +27.3% ROI on over bets, making it one of the most profitable defensive props available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Draymond Green Blocks home games?
Bet the over on Draymond Green's blocks at home games. The 66.7% hit rate and +0.5 average edge over typical lines create consistent value, especially when he's playing significant minutes against faster-paced opponents.
What's Draymond Green's average Blocks home games?
Draymond Green averages 1.13 blocks per game at home, significantly outperforming the typical 0.63 line set by oddsmakers. This creates a substantial half-block advantage that translates to profitable betting opportunities consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Draymond Green blocks overs at home when facing uptempo opponents and when he's not in foul trouble early. The home court defensive positioning advantage is most pronounced in competitive games where he plays 30+ minutes.