Draymond Green's assists prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 43.8% overs across 16 games with a brutal -16.5% ROI on overs. His 6.25 average barely exceeds the 6.0 line, creating consistent value on the under despite the modest +0.25 differential.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Green's diminished playmaking role in Golden State's evolved offense. His 43.8% over rate at home reflects the Warriors' reduced reliance on Green as primary facilitator, particularly when Stephen Curry and Chris Paul handle more creation duties. The -16.5% ROI on overs indicates consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to Green's reduced assist volume in this system. His 6.25 home average sits just 0.25 assists above the typical 6.0 line, creating razor-thin margins that favor the under given natural variance. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just 2 games) suggests this isn't a temporary dip but a structural shift. Home games actually work against Green's assist totals, as Golden State's superior shooting at Chase Center reduces his need for extra passes to generate quality looks. The Warriors' improved pace and ball movement means assists are more distributed, limiting Green's ceiling. With no significant split advantages and consistent underperformance against the number, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Green's 43.8% over rate and negative ROI on overs at home creates a sustainable edge, though the modest 0.25 average differential limits upside. Target this when the line sits at 6.0 or higher, particularly in games where Curry and Paul are both active to limit Green's primary facilitator role. Main risk is potential lineup changes or injuries that could increase his usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 12.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Draymond Green's Assists prop record home games?
Green's assists prop at home shows a clear pattern: 7-9-0 over/under record (43.8% overs) across 16 games from November 2023 to April 2024, with overs producing a brutal -16.5% ROI for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Draymond Green Assists home games?
Bet the UNDER on Green's assists at home. The 43.8% over rate and -16.5% ROI on overs creates consistent value, especially when the line sits at 6.0 or higher in Golden State's evolved offensive system.
What's Draymond Green's average Assists home games?
Green averages 6.25 assists in home games, just 0.25 above the typical 6.0 line. This minimal differential combined with his 43.8% over rate suggests the market consistently overvalues his assist potential at Chase Center.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Green's assists under when Curry and Paul are both active, reducing his primary playmaking role. Home games against good defensive teams work best, as improved opponent preparation limits his assist ceiling significantly.