Draymond Green's assists prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 44.7% overs hitting across 38 games. His 6.08 average barely exceeds the typical 6.0 line, generating a solid 5.5% ROI on under bets while overs hemorrhage 14.6%.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fundamental mismatch between market perception and reality for Draymond Green's playmaking output. At 44.7% overs across 38 games, this prop consistently fails to reach inflated expectations, creating sustainable value on the under. Green's 6.08 average represents just a marginal 0.1 edge over the standard 6.0 line, far too thin to justify betting overs at standard -110 pricing. The Warriors' offensive evolution plays a crucial role here. With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson handling more creation duties, and the team's pace fluctuating based on game script, Green's assist opportunities become more situational than guaranteed. His role as a connector rather than primary initiator means his assist totals depend heavily on teammates converting open looks and the game flow favoring Golden State's ball movement. The 14.6% negative ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Green's reduced playmaking responsibility in this system. Meanwhile, under bettors have profited consistently, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural edge. The longest under streak of four games indicates Green can go cold for extended periods, while his longest over streak caps at just two games, showing limited upside momentum.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5.5% under ROI combined with just 44.7% overs hitting creates a sustainable edge against an overvalued line. Target games where Golden State faces uptempo opponents or when Green's defensive responsibilities might limit his offensive involvement. The primary risk is Green's unpredictable ceiling in pace-up spots, but the data strongly favors consistent under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 12.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Draymond Green's Assists prop record all games?
Draymond Green's assists prop record across all games shows 17 overs and 21 unders in 38 games, hitting the over just 44.7% of the time with an average of 6.08 assists per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Draymond Green Assists all games?
Bet under on Draymond Green's assists props. The 5.5% under ROI and 55.3% under hit rate create consistent value, while overs lose money at 14.6% negative ROI despite his slight average edge.
What's Draymond Green's average Assists all games?
Draymond Green averages 6.08 assists per game across all situations, just 0.1 assists above the typical 6.0 line. This minimal edge makes overs poor value at standard pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when Golden State faces defensive-minded opponents or in games where Green's defensive workload increases. Avoid overs in pace-up spots where his assist ceiling could spike unexpectedly.