Dorian Finney-Smith's three-point shooting has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs while averaging 0.9 makes against a 1.5 line. The -0.6 differential and brutal -42.7% over ROI make the under a compelling systematic play.
Expert Analysis
Finney-Smith's three-point production has fallen off a cliff, with his 0.9 average representing a massive 40% shortfall from the standard 1.5 line. This isn't just bad luck—it's a fundamental shift in his role and effectiveness. The 3-7 over record tells only part of the story; the -42.7% ROI on overs reveals the market has been consistently overvaluing his three-point ceiling. Brooklyn's offensive system appears to be limiting Finney-Smith's clean looks, as evidenced by his inability to string together consecutive over performances. The longest under streak of four games suggests this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern of diminished three-point volume and efficiency. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—even when Finney-Smith does hit an over, he immediately reverts to under form. The market seems slow to adjust to his reduced three-point role, creating persistent value on the under. His current one-game over streak actually represents a prime fade opportunity, as the pattern shows he struggles to maintain elevated three-point production across multiple games.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Finney-Smith's 0.9 average creates a substantial 0.6-make cushion against the 1.5 line, while his inability to sustain three-point production makes this a systematic edge. Target this under especially after any over performance, as his pattern shows immediate regression. The main risk is a sudden role change, but Brooklyn's current system clearly limits his three-point opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Dorian Finney-Smith props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dorian Finney-Smith's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Finney-Smith has gone 3-7 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% while averaging 0.9 makes against the typical 1.5 line for a -0.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dorian Finney-Smith 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. His 0.9 average creates substantial value against the 1.5 line, supported by a devastating -42.7% over ROI and consistent pattern of underperformance.
What's Dorian Finney-Smith's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Finney-Smith is averaging 0.9 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, falling 0.6 makes short of the standard 1.5 line—a 40% shortfall that creates significant under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target the under immediately after any over performance, as Finney-Smith shows inability to sustain elevated three-point production. His pattern of immediate regression after rare success creates the strongest betting spots.