Domantas Sabonis has delivered exceptional value on assists overs at home, hitting 66.7% across 36 games with a robust +27.3% ROI. His 8.14 average consistently outpaces the 7.83 line by 0.3 assists per game. This represents a strong lean over in Sacramento home contests.
Expert Analysis
Sabonis thrives as Sacramento's primary facilitator at Golden 1 Center, where the Kings' uptempo style and familiar surroundings create optimal conditions for his playmaking. The 8.14 home assists average reflects his expanded role in Mike Brown's system, where he operates as both a traditional big and point-forward hybrid. The 0.3 differential above the typical line suggests consistent market undervaluation of his home court advantage. His 11-game over streak demonstrates the sustainability of this edge, while the brief 2-game under streak shows natural variance rather than systematic breakdown. The +27.3% ROI indicates sharp money has recognized this trend, yet books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his elevated home performance. Sacramento's pace and ball movement philosophy particularly benefit Sabonis at home, where crowd energy and rhythm favor his court vision. The 66.7% hit rate across 36 games provides substantial sample size confidence, though regression toward league averages remains possible as books adapt. His dual threat as scorer and passer makes him less predictable for opponents to game-plan against in familiar territory.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Sabonis's 66.7% home assists over rate and +27.3% ROI present clear value, particularly when lines sit at or below 7.8 assists. The 0.3 average differential above typical lines indicates consistent market inefficiency. Target games against uptempo opponents or when Sacramento is favored, maximizing pace and possession advantages. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments as this trend gains recognition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Domantas Sabonis's Assists prop record home games?
Sabonis has gone over his assists prop in 24 of 36 home games (66.7%) while averaging 8.14 assists against a typical 7.83 line. This 24-12 record has generated a +27.3% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Domantas Sabonis Assists home games?
Lean over on Sabonis assists props at home. His 66.7% hit rate and +27.3% ROI provide clear statistical edge, especially when lines are set at 7.8 or below. Target favorable matchups for maximum value.
What's Domantas Sabonis's average Assists home games?
Sabonis averages 8.14 assists in home games, consistently outpacing the typical 7.83 line by 0.3 assists per contest. This differential has sustained across 36 games, indicating reliable market undervaluation of his home performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sabonis assists overs when Sacramento plays uptempo opponents at home or when the Kings are favored. These conditions maximize possessions and offensive rhythm, amplifying his playmaking opportunities in familiar territory.