Domantas Sabonis presents a modest edge on assists overs with a 54.5% hit rate across 77 games, averaging 7.95 assists against typical 7.79 lines. The +4.1% ROI on overs versus -13.2% on unders suggests consistent value, though the current three-game under streak warrants attention.
Expert Analysis
Sabonis's assists prop success stems from his unique role as Sacramento's primary facilitator from the center position, a responsibility that creates consistent volume regardless of game script. His 7.95 average against 7.79 lines reflects books consistently undervaluing his playmaking impact, particularly given his ability to find teammates from the post and in transition. The 54.5% over rate demonstrates sustainable edge rather than variance, as his assist opportunities remain steady through Sacramento's pace-heavy system. However, the recent three-game under streak coincides with potential lineup changes or defensive adjustments that could signal temporary regression. The key concern lies in Sacramento's inconsistent offensive execution late in games, where Sabonis's assist totals can stagnate if teammates struggle to convert quality looks. His assist numbers also correlate strongly with pace, meaning slower-tempo matchups present the primary threat to over bets. The positive ROI differential between overs and unders suggests books haven't fully adjusted their pricing model to account for his expanded playmaking role, creating ongoing value for disciplined over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Sabonis's consistent playmaking role and the positive ROI differential support targeting overs when lines sit at 7.5 or below. The ideal spots emerge against faster-paced opponents where Sacramento's transition offense maximizes his assist opportunities. However, the current under streak and potential for defensive adjustments require selective timing rather than blind backing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Domantas Sabonis's Assists prop record all games?
Sabonis has hit the over on assists props in 42 of 77 games (54.5%) this season, with 35 unders and no pushes. His overs have generated a positive 4.1% ROI while unders show a negative 13.2% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Domantas Sabonis Assists all games?
Lean toward betting overs on Sabonis assists, particularly when lines are 7.5 or below. The 54.5% hit rate and positive ROI provide consistent value, though avoid during the current three-game under streak without confirming lineup stability.
What's Domantas Sabonis's average Assists all games?
Sabonis averages 7.95 assists per game across all situations, running 0.16 assists above typical book lines of 7.79. This small but consistent edge has translated into profitable over betting opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sabonis assists overs against faster-paced teams when Sacramento plays at home, as transition opportunities maximize his playmaking. Avoid back-to-back situations or games where key teammates are questionable, reducing his assist ceiling significantly.