Dillon Brooks has hit the over on three-pointers made just 50% of the time over his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 against the line. Despite averaging 1.8 makes versus a 1.5 line, both over and under bets show identical -4.5% ROI, indicating a perfectly efficient market with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
The perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record masks what should be a profitable over trend given Brooks's 1.8 average against a 1.5 line. This +0.3 differential typically translates to positive expected value, yet the identical -4.5% ROI on both sides reveals line movement that has eliminated any edge. Brooks's three-point shooting has become increasingly volatile during this stretch, evidenced by alternating streaks of four overs followed by three unders, then back to moderate success. The Houston guard's role as a complementary shooter means his three-point volume fluctuates based on game flow and opponent defensive schemes. When the Rockets face teams that pack the paint or when Brooks gets early rhythm, he tends to let it fly from deep. However, his shot selection can become forced during cold stretches, leading to inefficient attempts that rarely connect. The current one-game under streak suggests recent struggles, but Brooks has shown the ability to bounce back quickly throughout this sample. Without additional context about matchups, rest, or role changes, this trend appears to be caught in a perfectly balanced market where oddsmakers have accurately priced his true probability of hitting multiple threes.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The market has perfectly priced Brooks's three-point prop, eliminating any mathematical edge despite his solid 1.8 average. Both over and under bets carry identical -4.5% ROI, indicating sharp line movement that accounts for all relevant factors. Without specific matchup advantages or clear pattern recognition beyond the balanced record, there's no compelling reason to force action on either side of this efficiently priced market.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Brooks has gone 5-5-0 over/under on his three-pointers made prop in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He's averaging 1.8 makes against a typical 1.5 line, showing slight positive differential despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Pass on both sides. Despite Brooks averaging above the line, both over and under bets show identical -4.5% ROI, indicating the market has eliminated any edge through accurate pricing. No clear advantage exists in this perfectly balanced sample.
What's Dillon Brooks's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Brooks is averaging 1.8 three-pointers made over his last 10 games against a standard 1.5 line, creating a +0.3 differential. However, this apparent edge hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities due to efficient market pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Look for specific matchup advantages against teams that allow high three-point volume or when Brooks has extended rest. Without situational edges, this prop appears efficiently priced with no clear timing advantage based on recent performance patterns.