Dillon Brooks shows modest decline in three-point production during back-to-back games, hitting just 45.5% of overs across 11 games with a minimal +0.1 average differential above the 1.5 line. The under has generated positive 4.1% ROI while overs have lost -13.2%, creating a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Dillon Brooks's three-point shooting suffers the predictable fatigue effects during back-to-back scenarios, though not as dramatically as some players. His 1.55 average barely exceeds the standard 1.5 line, suggesting oddsmakers have properly adjusted for his reduced efficiency on zero rest. The 45.5% over rate indicates Brooks struggles to maintain his typical shooting rhythm when legs are heavy, particularly concerning given his streaky nature as a volume shooter. The negative ROI on overs (-13.2%) reflects consistent underperformance relative to market expectations, while the positive under ROI (+4.1%) demonstrates exploitable value. Brooks's role as Houston's primary perimeter defender likely compounds the fatigue factor, as defensive workload directly impacts shooting legs. The sample size of 11 games provides reasonable confidence, especially given the consistency of the underlying factors. Most concerning for over backers is Brooks's tendency toward longer under streaks (up to 3 games) compared to over streaks (maximum 2), suggesting when his shot goes cold in these spots, it stays cold. The Rockets' pace and Brooks's usage patterns haven't shown dramatic shifts in back-to-backs, making this more about pure shooting regression than situational role changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Brooks's 45.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs in back-to-back games reflects legitimate fatigue impact on his shooting stroke. The 1.55 average provides minimal cushion above the 1.5 line, making unders the superior long-term play. Target this trend when Brooks is coming off high-minute games or facing quality perimeter defense that will force contested looks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's 3-Pointers Made prop record back-to-back games?
Brooks has gone 5-6-0 on three-pointers made overs in back-to-back games, hitting just 45.5% of overs across 11 games. His under record of 6-5-0 shows slight edge for under backers with positive ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks 3-Pointers Made back-to-back games?
Bet the under on Brooks's three-pointers made in back-to-back games. The 45.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs indicates consistent underperformance, while unders have generated positive 4.1% returns.
What's Dillon Brooks's average 3-Pointers Made back-to-back games?
Brooks averages 1.55 three-pointers made in back-to-back games, just 0.1 above the typical 1.5 line. This minimal differential suggests oddsmakers have properly adjusted for his reduced efficiency on zero rest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brooks three-pointers under props when he played heavy minutes the previous game or faces strong perimeter defense. Back-to-back games after high-usage performances show the strongest under trends due to compounded fatigue.