Dillon Brooks shows modest value in away three-pointers made props, averaging 1.88 makes against a 1.53 line for a +0.35 differential. His 16-17 over record (48.5%) suggests the market has slightly overcorrected, creating subtle under value despite the positive scoring differential.
Expert Analysis
The Dillon Brooks away three-pointers made trend reveals a fascinating market inefficiency. While Brooks averages 1.88 makes per away game against a 1.53 line, his 48.5% over rate suggests oddsmakers have adjusted too aggressively downward. This creates a rare scenario where a player consistently outperforms his line yet fails to hit overs at expected rates. Brooks's shooting volume and role in Houston's offense remain consistent on the road, but his conversion rate appears more volatile than his attempts suggest. The -7.4% ROI on overs indicates the market has found equilibrium pricing, while the minimal -1.6% under ROI suggests slight value exists. Brooks's three-point shooting benefits from Houston's pace and spacing, particularly in away environments where defensive attention often focuses on Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet. However, his streaky nature creates risk - both his longest over and under streaks reached four games, indicating significant variance. The key factor appears to be Brooks's shot selection improving on the road, taking higher-quality looks while maintaining volume. This differential between performance and betting results suggests the market may be undervaluing his consistency while overreacting to his reputation as an inconsistent shooter.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Despite Brooks averaging 1.88 makes against a 1.53 line, his 48.5% over rate indicates the market has found proper pricing. The slight edge lies with unders given the minimal -1.6% ROI versus -7.4% on overs. Target this when Brooks faces elite perimeter defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where fourth-quarter minutes could be limited.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Dillon Brooks has gone 16-17 on three-pointers made overs in away games, hitting just 48.5% despite averaging 1.88 makes against a 1.53 line. This represents a 33-game sample with surprising under performance given his positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks 3-Pointers Made away games?
Lean toward betting under on Dillon Brooks three-pointers made in away games. While he outperforms his line by 0.35 makes, overs hit just 48.5% with poor -7.4% ROI, while unders show minimal -1.6% loss, indicating slight value.
What's Dillon Brooks's average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Dillon Brooks averages 1.88 three-pointers made in away games compared to his typical 1.53 line, creating a +0.35 differential. This positive gap makes the 48.5% over rate particularly noteworthy, suggesting market overcorrection has occurred.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dillon Brooks three-pointers made unders when Houston faces elite perimeter defenses or in potential blowout scenarios. His high variance (four-game streaks both ways) makes timing crucial, with unders offering better long-term ROI at -1.6%.