Desmond Bane's home assists prop presents a perfectly balanced 8-8 record with a modest +0.8 edge over the typical 5.12 line. The 50% hit rate combined with negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. This appears to be a neutral situation without a clear betting edge.
Expert Analysis
Desmond Bane's home assists trend reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency. Over 16 home games, Bane has averaged 5.94 assists against a typical line of 5.12, creating a seemingly attractive 0.8-assist cushion. However, the perfectly split 8-8 over-under record tells a more complex story. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) indicates that books have priced this market with precision, likely accounting for Bane's increased playmaking responsibilities at home where Memphis runs more offensive sets through him. The Grizzlies' home court advantage typically translates to better ball movement and higher-percentage looks, which should theoretically boost Bane's assist opportunities. Yet the even split suggests other factors are offsetting this advantage. Memphis likely faces tougher defensive schemes at home as opponents gameplan more thoroughly, potentially limiting easy assist opportunities. Additionally, Bane's dual role as both scorer and facilitator means his assist production can vary significantly based on his shooting performance and the team's offensive flow on any given night.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Despite Bane averaging 0.8 assists above the typical line at home, the perfectly balanced 8-8 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate the market has found equilibrium. The lack of a meaningful edge, combined with the inherent volatility in assist props, makes this a spot to avoid rather than force a play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 16.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Desmond Bane's Assists prop record home games?
Bane has gone 8-8 on assists overs in 16 home games this season, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 5.94 assists against a typical line of 5.12.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Desmond Bane Assists home games?
Pass on Bane's home assists props. The perfectly balanced 8-8 record with negative ROI on both sides indicates the market has efficiently priced this prop without a clear edge.
What's Desmond Bane's average Assists home games?
Bane averages 5.94 assists in home games, which is 0.8 assists above the typical line of 5.12. However, this advantage hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Bane's assists props at home. The market appears efficiently priced with no clear patterns. Focus on road games or other props where inefficiencies may exist.