Derrick White's three-point prop shows strong home value with an 18-14 over record (56.2%) and a significant +0.53 average differential above the typical line. The +7.4% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent profit potential when White plays at TD Garden.
Expert Analysis
Derrick White's home three-point advantage stems from Boston's elite offensive system and TD Garden's shooter-friendly environment. The Celtics' pace-and-space offense creates more quality looks for White at home, where he averages 3.19 makes against lines typically set around 2.66. This 0.53 differential is substantial for three-point props, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to White's elevated home performance. The 56.2% over rate with positive ROI indicates genuine edge rather than variance. White's role as Boston's secondary playmaker becomes more pronounced at home, where the Celtics often build leads and maintain aggressive offensive schemes. The consistency of this trend across 32 games provides confidence in its sustainability. However, the recent streak of one under and longest under streak of four games shows this isn't automatic. White's three-point volume can fluctuate based on game script and Boston's health, particularly when Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown miss time and White's usage shifts more toward facilitation than shooting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence on Derrick White three-pointers made at home. The 56.2% hit rate and positive ROI create clear value, especially when lines remain in the 2.5-2.75 range. Target games where Boston is favored by 3-7 points, as moderate favorites often maintain aggressive offensive approaches that benefit White's shooting volume. Main risk is regression to league averages as books potentially adjust lines higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick White's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Derrick White has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 18 of 32 home games (56.2%), with an average of 3.19 makes per game. This strong over rate has generated a positive 7.4% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick White 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the over on Derrick White's three-pointers made at home. The 56.2% over rate and +0.53 average differential above typical lines create consistent value, especially when Boston is moderate favorites and White's shooting role remains prominent.
What's Derrick White's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Derrick White averages 3.19 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.53 makes above the typical betting line of 2.66. This significant differential explains the strong 56.2% over rate and positive ROI for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derrick White three-point overs when Boston plays at home as 3-7 point favorites. These game scripts typically maintain aggressive offensive approaches that maximize White's shooting opportunities while avoiding blowouts that could limit his minutes.