Derrick White has hit the under on his points prop in 60% of his last 10 games, averaging 15.0 points against a 15.5 line. The -23.6% ROI on overs signals a clear market inefficiency, making the under the sharper play moving forward.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of market overcorrection on Derrick White's scoring props. His 15.0 average sits a half-point below the typical 15.5 line, creating immediate value on unders. The 4-6-0 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects White's evolving role in Boston's offensive hierarchy. As the Celtics have found their rhythm, White has settled into more of a facilitating role, with his shot attempts becoming more selective and situational. The -23.6% ROI on overs suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on earlier season usage patterns when he was forced into higher-volume scoring situations. White's game-to-game variance remains manageable, with his longest streaks capping at just two games in either direction. This consistency actually works in favor of under bettors, as it suggests his reduced scoring output isn't due to temporary slumps but rather a sustainable shift in responsibilities. The market appears slow to adjust to this new reality, particularly given White's reputation as a capable scorer. However, bettors should monitor for potential regression if key teammates miss time, as White has historically elevated his scoring when thrust back into primary offensive roles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The half-point cushion between White's 15.0 average and typical 15.5 lines creates consistent value, supported by the stark -23.6% ROI on overs. Target this play when White's line sits at 15.5 or higher, particularly in games where Boston's core rotation remains healthy and he can focus on his distributing role rather than forced scoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 13.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 16.5 | 16.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-26 | OPP | 16.5 | 18.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 15.5 | 13.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 3.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 11.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick White's Points prop record last 10 games?
Derrick White has gone 4-6-0 on his points props over the last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. He's averaging 15.0 points per game against lines typically set around 15.5.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick White Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Derrick White's points. The numbers show clear value with his 15.0 average sitting below typical 15.5 lines, plus under bettors are enjoying +14.6% ROI while overs lose -23.6%.
What's Derrick White's average Points last 10 games?
Derrick White is averaging 15.0 points over his last 10 games, which sits 0.5 points below the typical 15.5 line. This half-point differential creates consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derrick White under props when his line is 15.5 or higher and Boston's core rotation is healthy. His reduced scoring role becomes most pronounced when he can focus on facilitating rather than forced shot creation.