Derrick White's assist prop shows a compelling 56.7% over rate (17-13-0) in home games with a positive 0.2 average differential above the typical 4.33 line. The +8.2% ROI on overs versus -17.3% on unders creates a clear statistical edge favoring the over in Boston.
Expert Analysis
White's home assist advantage stems from Boston's offensive system flourishing at TD Garden, where the Celtics' pace and ball movement create more assist opportunities for their primary facilitator. The 4.5 average against a 4.33 line represents meaningful value, particularly when considering White's role as the team's secondary playmaker behind Jayson Tatum. Home court comfort allows White to be more aggressive in his passing, evidenced by the sustained over performance across 30 games. The streak data shows volatility with a longest over run of seven games, indicating this isn't just random variance but a persistent edge. However, the 17 unders demonstrate this isn't automatic money. White's assist production correlates heavily with game flow and Boston's offensive efficiency, which tends to be elevated at home. The key concern is regression toward the mean, as 56.7% over rates rarely sustain indefinitely. Yet the underlying factors—home court advantage, system fit, and role consistency—suggest this trend has staying power rather than being a statistical fluke.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.7% over rate combined with positive average differential creates legitimate value, especially when the line sits at 4.5 or lower. White's facilitating role in Boston's home offense provides the foundation for continued over performance. Primary risk is natural regression and potential line adjustments, but the underlying factors support continued success.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Derrick White props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick White's Assists prop record home games?
White has gone over his assists prop in 17 of 30 home games (56.7%) while going under 13 times. His 4.5 average exceeds the typical 4.33 line, creating a positive differential that has generated an 8.2% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick White Assists home games?
Bet the over on White's assists in home games. The 56.7% over rate with positive ROI and average differential above the line creates legitimate value, particularly when the prop sits at 4.5 or lower at TD Garden.
What's Derrick White's average Assists home games?
White averages 4.5 assists in home games, which runs 0.2 above the typical 4.33 line. This consistent positive differential across 30 games indicates he regularly exceeds market expectations when playing at TD Garden.
How reliable is this trend?
Target White's assists overs in home games when the line is 4.5 or lower and Boston is playing uptempo opponents. Avoid during back-to-back situations or when key teammates are injured, reducing his playmaking opportunities.