Dereck Lively II's blocks prop shows clear under value with just 45.5% overs across 11 games, averaging 1.45 blocks against a 1.59 line. The rookie center's current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of falling short of inflated expectations.
Expert Analysis
The market appears to be overvaluing Dereck Lively II's shot-blocking potential based on his 7'1" frame and defensive reputation, but the numbers tell a different story. His 1.45 blocks per game average sits 0.14 blocks below the typical 1.59 line, creating consistent under value. This isn't simply variance—it reflects the reality of a rookie center learning NBA positioning and timing while playing limited minutes in Dallas's rotation. The Mavericks' defensive system doesn't necessarily funnel shots toward Lively, and his foul trouble often limits his aggressive rim protection. His current three-game under streak mirrors his longest under streak of the season, suggesting this isn't an aberration but rather his true baseline. The -13.2% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't properly adjusted to his actual production level, while the +4.1% under ROI shows modest but consistent profitability. Without significant changes to his role or minutes, Lively's blocks production appears capped below market expectations. The lack of split data actually supports the under thesis—there's no evidence of favorable matchups or situations where he significantly exceeds his baseline.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lively's 1.45 average versus the 1.59 line creates a mathematical edge that his current form supports. The ideal conditions are games where he's likely to see standard rotation minutes without foul trouble. The main risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his opportunities, but his consistent underperformance suggests the market hasn't caught up to his true production level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dereck Lively II's Blocks prop record all games?
Dereck Lively II's blocks prop record shows 5 overs and 6 unders across 11 games, hitting the over just 45.5% of the time. He's currently on a three-game under streak, matching his longest under streak of the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dereck Lively II Blocks all games?
Lean under on Lively's blocks props. His 1.45 average sits 0.14 blocks below the typical 1.59 line, and the current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of underperforming market expectations.
What's Dereck Lively II's average Blocks all games?
Lively averages 1.45 blocks per game across his 11-game sample, falling 0.14 blocks short of the standard 1.59 line. This differential creates consistent under value that the market hasn't properly adjusted for.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lively blocks unders in standard rotation games where he plays normal minutes without early foul trouble. Avoid garbage time situations or games where Dallas faces high-volume shot attempts that could inflate his opportunities.