Deni Avdija's three-pointers made prop at home presents a compelling over opportunity with a 58.8% hit rate (20-14 record) and +0.3 average differential above typical lines. The 12.3% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent value despite a recent four-game under streak. Lean Over on Avdija's home three-point props.
Expert Analysis
Deni Avdija transforms into a notably more aggressive three-point shooter in the friendly confines of Capital One Arena, averaging 1.29 made threes versus the typical 1.03 line set by oddsmakers. This 25% uptick in production reflects the comfort factor many players experience at home, where familiar sight lines, crowd energy, and routine create optimal shooting conditions. The 58.8% over rate across 34 games represents a statistically significant edge that suggests books haven't fully adjusted their home/road pricing for Avdija's location-based variance. The current four-game under streak, while concerning on the surface, actually represents a prime regression spot given the strong underlying trend. Avdija's role as a versatile forward who can spot up from deep makes him particularly susceptible to home court advantages, as Washington's offensive schemes likely emphasize getting him quality looks in familiar surroundings. The 12.3% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just a high-volume trend but a profitable one, suggesting the market consistently undervalues Avdija's three-point ceiling at home. However, the -21.4% under ROI warns that when this prop misses, it tends to miss badly, indicating some volatility in his shot selection and efficiency game to game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% hit rate and +0.3 differential provide a clear statistical edge that outweighs the recent under streak. Target this prop when Avdija is getting regular rotation minutes and Washington is facing teams that allow above-average three-point attempts. The main risk is his inconsistent shot selection, but home court historically brings out his most aggressive perimeter shooting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Deni Avdija's three-pointers made prop at home shows a 20-14 record (58.8% overs) across 34 games from October 2023 to April 2024, generating a solid 12.3% ROI on over bets while under bets lost 21.4%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet over on Deni Avdija's three-pointers made at home. The 58.8% hit rate and +0.3 average differential above lines provides a clear statistical edge, despite the recent four-game under streak creating regression opportunity.
What's Deni Avdija's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Deni Avdija averages 1.29 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 1.03 line, creating a +0.3 differential that represents 25% higher production than oddsmakers generally expect from him at Capital One Arena.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Avdija's three-point props during home games when he's in the regular rotation and Washington faces teams allowing above-average three-point attempts. Avoid during back-to-backs or when his minutes are uncertain due to lineup changes.