Deni Avdija's assist props have shown consistent value on the over side, hitting 60% of the time across his last 10 games with a solid +14.6% ROI. The Wizards forward is averaging 4.1 assists against a 3.6 line, creating a meaningful half-assist edge that suggests continued over opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Avdija's assist production surge reflects Washington's evolving offensive system and his expanded playmaking role. The 4.1 average against a 3.6 line represents genuine value, not statistical noise. His 60% over rate demonstrates consistent execution rather than hot-streak variance. The +0.5 differential indicates oddsmakers are still catching up to his increased usage as a secondary facilitator. Washington's pace and ball movement have created more opportunities for Avdija to rack up assists, particularly in transition situations where his court vision shines. The recent two-game under streak actually presents buying opportunity, as regression toward his 4.1 average becomes more likely. His assist totals correlate strongly with minutes played and team offensive flow, both of which have been favorable during this sample. The 14.6% ROI on overs suggests sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational betting continues to push under value. Avdija's playmaking has become integral to Washington's offense, making this trend more sustainable than typical hot streaks. The lack of extreme outliers in his assist totals indicates consistent role definition rather than game-script dependent variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Avdija's half-assist edge over the typical 3.6 line represents genuine value backed by expanded playmaking responsibilities. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate market inefficiency that hasn't fully corrected. Target overs when Washington faces up-tempo opponents or in potential shootout spots where increased possessions amplify his assist opportunities. Main risk is the recent two-game under streak extending if his role unexpectedly contracts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Deni Avdija has gone over his assists prop 6 times in his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. He's averaging 4.1 assists during this stretch, consistently exceeding typical betting lines around 3.5-3.6 assists per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Avdija's assists props. His 4.1 average against 3.6 lines creates a meaningful edge, supported by 60% over rate and positive ROI. The recent two-game under streak actually presents a buying opportunity.
What's Deni Avdija's average Assists last 10 games?
Avdija is averaging 4.1 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.5 assists above the typical 3.6 betting line. This half-assist differential represents significant value for over bettors in the assists market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Avdija assists overs when Washington faces high-pace opponents or in potential shootout games. His playmaking thrives with increased possessions and ball movement, making up-tempo matchups ideal for over bets on his assist props.