Deni Avdija's assists prop shows a slight under bias with just 48.4% overs across 64 games. The 3.75 average barely exceeds the typical 3.69 line, creating minimal value. With negative ROI on both sides and marginal statistical edge, this prop warrants caution.
Expert Analysis
Avdija's assist numbers reflect his evolving role in Washington's system, where he's transitioned from a primary facilitator to more of a complementary playmaker. The 48.4% over rate suggests books have calibrated this line effectively, capturing his true assist ceiling in most game scenarios. His 3.75 average against a 3.69 line represents just a 1.6% edge—statistically insignificant over 64 games. The negative ROI on both sides (-7.5% over, -1.6% under) indicates this prop lacks exploitable inefficiencies. Avdija's assist production appears highly dependent on game flow and his teammates' shooting efficiency, creating volatility that makes consistent profit difficult. The current two-game under streak following longer streaks in both directions (4 overs, 5 unders) demonstrates the choppy nature of his playmaking output. Without clear situational edges or meaningful statistical deviation from the betting line, this prop represents a coin flip with house juice working against bettors. The lack of available split data further limits our ability to identify profitable spots, suggesting books may have this number dialed in across all game contexts.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Avdija averages 3.75 assists against a 3.69 line, the minimal 1.6% edge disappears when factoring in juice and variance. The negative ROI on both sides over 64 games proves this line is efficiently priced. Without situational data to identify profitable spots, this prop offers no sustainable edge for serious bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Assists prop record all games?
Deni Avdija's assists prop record shows 31 overs and 33 unders across 64 games, hitting the over just 48.4% of the time. This slight under bias suggests the line is well-calibrated to his actual production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Assists all games?
Pass on Deni Avdija's assists props entirely. The 48.4% over rate with negative ROI on both sides shows no sustainable edge. His 3.75 average barely exceeds the 3.69 line, making this essentially a coin flip with house juice.
What's Deni Avdija's average Assists all games?
Deni Avdija averages 3.75 assists per game against a typical line of 3.69, creating just a 0.06 advantage. This minimal 1.6% edge is statistically insignificant and disappears when accounting for betting juice and natural variance.
How reliable is this trend?
There's no optimal time to bet Deni Avdija's assists props based on available data. The consistent negative ROI across all situations and lack of split data suggest this line is efficiently priced regardless of opponent or game context.