DeMar DeRozan's three-pointers made prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 35.7% of overs across 28 games with a -0.2 differential from his 0.82 line average. The 22.7% ROI on unders reflects sustainable value rooted in DeRozan's fundamental playing style and shot selection preferences.
Expert Analysis
DeMar DeRozan's three-point struggles represent more than variance—they reflect his core basketball identity as a mid-range specialist who has never embraced the modern NBA's perimeter revolution. His 0.64 average against a 0.82 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his Sacramento role, where he operates primarily as a facilitator and interior scorer. The 10-18-0 over-under record demonstrates remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated expectations. DeRozan's career-long reluctance to launch threes, combined with Sacramento's ball movement system that creates better looks for teammates like Malik Monk and Keegan Murray, creates structural headwinds against three-point production. The longest under streak of six games shows his ability to completely avoid perimeter attempts when game flow doesn't demand them. Even his longest over streak maxed at three games, suggesting any hot shooting represents temporary deviation rather than sustainable shift. This isn't a player fighting poor shooting luck—it's a methodical veteran who has built his game around different strengths and shows no inclination to fundamentally alter his shot diet at age 35.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's playing style creates natural resistance to three-point volume, and the 22.7% ROI on unders reflects genuine market inefficiency. Target games where Sacramento faces elite defenses that force more isolation plays, as DeRozan defaults to his mid-range comfort zone. Main risk comes from potential blowouts where garbage time creates artificial attempts, but his disciplined approach minimizes this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
DeRozan has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 10 of 28 games (35.7%) this season, with an average of 0.64 makes against a typical 0.82 line, creating a consistent -0.2 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on DeRozan's three-pointers made props. His 22.7% ROI on unders reflects genuine value from books overestimating his perimeter volume, while his mid-range-focused playing style creates natural resistance to three-point attempts in Sacramento's system.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
DeRozan averages 0.64 three-pointers made per game, falling 0.2 short of his typical 0.82 line. This consistent shortfall reflects his preference for mid-range shots and Sacramento's tendency to funnel three-point opportunities to more willing shooters.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games against elite defenses that force more isolation plays, where DeRozan naturally gravitates toward his mid-range comfort zone. Avoid potential blowouts where garbage time might artificially inflate his three-point attempts beyond his typical disciplined approach.