DeMar DeRozan's steals prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 30% overs hitting over his last 10 games. His 0.8 average sits 0.2 below the typical 1.0 line, generating strong -42.7% ROI on overs while unders profit at +33.6%. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's defensive profile has shifted dramatically since joining Sacramento, where his role emphasizes offensive facilitation over aggressive perimeter defense. At 35 years old, DeRozan is conserving energy for his primary responsibilities as a scorer and playmaker, leading to fewer gambling attempts for steals. The Kings' defensive scheme also factors heavily - they prioritize team defense and rotations over individual steal hunting, particularly from their veteran wings. DeRozan's 0.8 steal average represents a significant decline from his career norms, suggesting this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in approach. The 4-game under streak within this sample demonstrates consistency in his conservative defensive positioning. Sacramento's pace and DeRozan's minutes distribution further support this trend, as he's often matched against opposing team's primary scorers where disciplined defense takes precedence over risk-taking. The 70% under rate across 10 games provides substantial sample size confidence, especially given the underlying role and scheme factors driving this performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's age, role shift, and Sacramento's defensive system create a perfect storm for under performance on steals props. The 0.8 average against 1.0 lines offers consistent value, particularly in games where he faces elite offensive players requiring disciplined coverage. Main risk involves potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare DeMar DeRozan props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Steals prop record last 10 games?
DeRozan has gone over his steals prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate) while going under 7 times. This 3-7-0 record represents poor over performance with a -0.2 average differential below typical lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on DeRozan's steals props. His 30% over rate and -0.2 differential below lines create clear value, especially with Sacramento's defensive scheme limiting his aggressive steal attempts at age 35.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Steals last 10 games?
DeRozan averages 0.8 steals over his last 10 games, sitting 0.2 below the typical 1.0 line. This consistent underperformance reflects his evolved role prioritizing offensive responsibilities over defensive gambling.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan steals unders when he faces elite offensive players requiring disciplined defense, or in nationally televised games where team defensive execution is emphasized. Avoid during potential blowout scenarios with garbage time.