DeMar DeRozan's steals prop in away games presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40% of overs across 20 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders. His 1.3 average barely exceeds the typical 1.15 line, creating sustainable value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about DeRozan's defensive limitations in road environments. His 8-12 over/under record away from home reflects the reality that steals are largely opportunistic stats that require anticipation and energy—two elements that naturally diminish for aging players in hostile environments. DeRozan's 1.3 steals average represents just a 0.15 cushion over typical lines, meaning even slight regression hits the under. The -23.6% ROI on overs demonstrates that the market consistently overvalues his defensive impact on the road, likely influenced by his overall veteran reputation rather than his actual steal production. His recent streak of one under follows a pattern where he's hit longer under streaks (up to six games) more frequently than over streaks (maximum three games). The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests no specific matchup advantages that would justify betting overs. Sacramento's pace and DeRozan's role as a primary offensive initiator means his defensive focus often takes a backseat, particularly in away games where offensive execution becomes more challenging. The 14.6% ROI on unders represents legitimate value in a market that appears slow to adjust to his road defensive limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with his 60% under rate creates a sustainable edge against a market that overvalues DeRozan's steal potential away from home. Target games where Sacramento faces faster-paced opponents that limit his defensive positioning opportunities. The primary risk is small sample variance, but the underlying factors suggest this trend should persist given his age and offensive-first role on the road.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Steals prop record away games?
DeRozan's steals prop record in away games is 8-12-0 over/under, hitting just 40% of overs across 20 games. This 60% under rate demonstrates consistent underperformance against market expectations on the road.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Steals away games?
Bet under on DeRozan's steals in away games. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders creates sustainable value against a market that overvalues his defensive impact in road environments.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Steals away games?
DeRozan averages 1.3 steals in away games compared to the typical 1.15 line, providing just a 0.15 cushion. This minimal edge means even slight regression consistently hits the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan steals unders in away games against faster-paced opponents where defensive positioning becomes more difficult. His advanced age and offensive workload create the most value in hostile road environments.