DeMar DeRozan's steals prop presents a clear under edge with just 42.9% overs across 21 games and a positive 9.1% ROI on unders. His 1.33 average barely exceeds the typical 1.12 line, creating sustainable value on the under despite the modest +0.2 differential.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's defensive steal production reveals a player whose reputation doesn't match his current output. At 35 years old, his steal rate has naturally declined as he's transitioned into more of an offensive focal point role with Sacramento. The 1.33 average against a 1.12 line appears favorable on surface, but the 42.9% over rate tells the real story - this modest edge gets inflated by occasional outlier performances while the majority of games fall short. DeRozan's role as a primary ball-handler and scorer means he's often conserving energy on defense, focusing more on help defense and positioning rather than aggressive steal attempts. The Kings' pace and defensive scheme also don't maximize steal opportunities for wings. His recent four-game under streak isn't anomalous but rather indicative of his typical performance pattern. The betting market seems to overvalue his historical steal production from his Chicago days, when he was more defensively engaged. Sacramento's team defense prioritizes rim protection over creating turnovers, limiting DeRozan's steal opportunities compared to more aggressive defensive systems.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's age-related defensive decline and role as Sacramento's primary offensive weapon create consistent under value. The 9.1% ROI on unders validates this edge, though the modest line differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target games where Sacramento faces methodical offenses that limit transition opportunities and steal chances.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Steals prop record all games?
DeRozan's steals prop shows a 9-12-0 over/under record across 21 games, hitting the over just 42.9% of the time. This translates to a -18.2% ROI on overs but a positive 9.1% ROI on unders, indicating clear under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Steals all games?
Bet the under on DeRozan's steals props. His 42.9% over rate and positive 9.1% under ROI demonstrate consistent value, driven by his age-related defensive decline and offensive-focused role with Sacramento limiting aggressive steal attempts.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Steals all games?
DeRozan averages 1.33 steals per game compared to his typical 1.12 line, creating a +0.2 differential. However, this modest edge is misleading as 57.1% of his games go under, indicating the average is inflated by occasional outlier performances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan under steals when Sacramento faces methodical, half-court offenses that limit transition opportunities. Games against teams with strong ball security and slower pace provide the best under conditions, as they minimize his steal chances.