DeMar DeRozan's assists prop shows a perfectly balanced 5-5 record over his last 10 games, but his 5.1 average significantly exceeds the typical 4.4 line by 0.7 assists per game. Despite the neutral ROI, this positive differential suggests consistent value on overs when the line stays reasonable.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's transition to Sacramento has unlocked a more complete playmaking role, evidenced by his 5.1 assist average that consistently outpaces standard lines. The 50% over rate masks the real story - he's beating his number by a meaningful 0.7 assists nightly, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in the Kings' system. His ability to create for teammates has become more pronounced as he's adapted to playing alongside De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, creating natural pick-and-roll opportunities and drive-and-kick scenarios. The neutral ROI reflects tight lines rather than poor performance, as DeRozan has found his rhythm as a secondary facilitator. His playmaking consistency suggests this isn't a hot streak but rather a sustainable skill evolution. The biggest risk lies in potential line adjustments as books catch up to his new role, but current pricing still offers value. Games with higher pace or weaker opposing defenses should amplify his assist opportunities, while back-to-back situations could limit his floor time and creation chances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's 5.1 average beating the 4.4 line by 0.7 assists represents legitimate value that books haven't fully recognized. His expanded playmaking role in Sacramento's system appears sustainable rather than variance-driven. Target overs when the line stays at 4.5 or below, especially in up-tempo matchups. Main risk is line movement as books adjust to his new role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Assists prop record last 10 games?
DeRozan has gone 5-5 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a -4.5% ROI on both sides, showing perfectly balanced but unprofitable results at current lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on DeRozan assists props. His 5.1 average consistently beats the typical 4.4 line by 0.7 assists, indicating books haven't adjusted to his expanded playmaking role in Sacramento's system.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Assists last 10 games?
DeRozan is averaging 5.1 assists over his last 10 games compared to his typical 4.4 line, creating a positive 0.7 assist differential that suggests consistent value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan assists overs when lines stay at 4.5 or below, especially in faster-paced games or against weaker defenses that create more transition and drive-and-kick opportunities for his playmaking.