Fade UNDER
10-16 O/U Record
38.5% Over Rate
-6.9u Units Won
-26.6% ROI
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DeMar DeRozan's assists prop away from home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 26 games with a -0.2 differential to his typical line. The under has delivered +17.5% ROI while overs have burned -26.6%. This is a clear lean under situation.

Expert Analysis

DeRozan's road assist struggles stem from Sacramento's offensive hierarchy shifts away from home. The veteran guard averages 4.88 assists in road games, consistently falling short of his 5.08 typical line. This isn't random variance — it's systematic underperformance tied to the Kings' road offensive identity. Away from Golden 1 Center, Sacramento relies more heavily on De'Aaron Fox's playmaking while DeRozan settles into a secondary scoring role. The 8-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how persistent this trend can be when DeRozan focuses on his natural scoring instincts rather than facilitating. Road environments often amplify a player's primary skill set, and for DeRozan, that's putting the ball in the basket, not distributing it. The sample size of 26 games provides statistical significance, and the -26.6% ROI on overs suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this road reality. Sacramento's pace and offensive flow change dramatically in hostile environments, with DeRozan becoming more of a bailout scorer than a primary facilitator. This trend shows no signs of regression, as it aligns with both DeRozan's career patterns and the Kings' road offensive philosophy.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's road assist props offer legitimate value given his 38.5% over rate and consistent underperformance versus the line. The ideal spots come against defensively sound teams that force Sacramento into isolation-heavy offense, where DeRozan naturally gravitates toward scoring. The primary risk is an unusually fast-paced game or early blowout that inflates his playmaking opportunities, but the underlying trend remains strong.

10 OVERS (38.5%)
16 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 15 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2025-03-31 OPP 4.5 8.0 +3.5 OVER
2025-03-03 OPP 4.5 4.0 -0.5 UNDER
2025-03-01 OPP 3.5 6.0 +2.5 OVER
2024-04-01 OPP 4.5 5.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-03-11 OPP 5.5 2.0 -3.5 UNDER
2024-03-09 OPP 4.5 10.0 +5.5 OVER
2024-02-27 OPP 4.5 4.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-14 OPP 4.5 6.0 +1.5 OVER
2024-02-12 OPP 5.5 5.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-10 OPP 4.5 4.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-08 OPP 5.5 1.0 -4.5 UNDER
2024-02-06 OPP 4.5 5.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-02-03 OPP 5.5 6.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-01-30 OPP 5.5 5.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-01-28 OPP 5.5 6.0 +0.5 OVER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 38.5% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 60.0% Over
Last 10 —% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is DeMar DeRozan's Assists prop record away games?

DeMar DeRozan has gone over his assists prop in just 10 of 26 away games (38.5%), with 16 unders. He averages 4.88 assists on the road compared to his typical 5.08 line, creating consistent value on the under.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Assists away games?

Bet the under on DeRozan's assists props in away games. The 38.5% over rate and +17.5% under ROI make this a profitable long-term strategy, especially when Sacramento faces defensively disciplined opponents on the road.

What's DeMar DeRozan's average Assists away games?

DeRozan averages 4.88 assists in away games, which runs 0.2 assists below his typical line of 5.08. This consistent shortfall over 26 games demonstrates why the under has been profitable at +17.5% ROI.

How reliable is this trend?

Target DeRozan assists unders in road games against strong defensive teams that slow pace and force isolation offense. Avoid when Sacramento faces up-tempo opponents or in potential blowout scenarios that could inflate his playmaking opportunities early.

Methodology: This analysis covers 26 games from 2023-10-30 to 2025-03-31. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.