DeMar DeRozan's assists props present a clear under opportunity with just 35.7% overs hitting across 28 games. His 4.75 average sits 0.25 assists below the typical 5.0 line, generating +22.7% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -31.8%.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's assist struggles in Sacramento reflect a fundamental role shift that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. After averaging 5.1 assists in Chicago, his playmaking responsibilities have diminished alongside De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, two primary ball handlers who naturally reduce DeRozan's distribution opportunities. The 4.75 average against a 5.0 line represents more than statistical noise—it's structural change. Sacramento's pace and offensive system favor Fox initiating offense while DeRozan operates more as a secondary scorer than primary facilitator. The concerning 8-game under streak highlights how consistently he's falling short of market expectations. His longest over streak reached just 2 games, suggesting even hot runs are brief. The -0.25 differential may seem modest, but it's massive in assists betting where margins are razor-thin. Most telling is the ROI disparity: unders profit at +22.7% while overs crater at -31.8%, indicating sharp money consistently fades inflated lines. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by role definition in Sacramento's hierarchy.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's diminished playmaking role in Sacramento creates consistent value on assist unders, evidenced by the 64.3% under rate and positive ROI. Target games where Fox and Sabonis both play, as their presence further limits DeRozan's distribution opportunities. Main risk is potential injury to primary ball handlers that could temporarily inflate his assist numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Assists prop record all games?
DeRozan's assists props show a 10-18-0 over/under record across 28 games, hitting overs just 35.7% of the time. This translates to unders cashing nearly two-thirds of opportunities while generating positive ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Assists all games?
Bet under on DeRozan's assists props. His 4.75 average sits below typical 5.0 lines, unders profit at +22.7% ROI, and his reduced playmaking role in Sacramento creates consistent value betting against inflated market expectations.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Assists all games?
DeRozan averages 4.75 assists per game, sitting 0.25 assists below the standard 5.0 line. This quarter-assist differential represents significant value in assists betting where margins determine long-term profitability consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan assist unders when Fox and Sabonis both play, as their ball-dominant styles minimize his distribution opportunities. Avoid games where either primary ball handler sits, as increased usage could temporarily inflate his assist production.